The NASCAR race at Chicagoland Speedway on Sunday (NBCSN, 3 p.m.) will feature the same rules package that resulted in a marvelous display of excitement at Kansas Speedway in May. When handicapping the Camping World 400, bettors must consider there will be close racing and tight finishes.

With this rules package in place at the 1.5-mile track, bettors also should know drivers’ starting positions mean less in analyzing the race. Drivers starting in the back will be able to make large gains. It is difficult to try and pin the eventual winner to within a certain number of starting positions.

Here is the driver matchup that appears to offer value for Sunday’s race.

The play: Denny Hamlin (-110) over Clint Bowyer (-110)

Using a base comparison of six “like situations” that the drivers have raced this season, Hamlin has one win and an average finish of 10th. Bowyer has an average finish of 20th and is without a win. Hamlin has the best progression of any driver in the past four races at Chicagoland with an average start of 18th and finish of 4.5. Lastly, through 16 races this season, Joe Gibbs Racing has 10 wins, while Bowyer’s team, Stewart-Haas, is winless.