Finally!
The 2019 NBA Finals begin Thursday night with heavy series favorite Golden State visiting surprise entry Toronto (ABC, 9 p.m.).
Bettors have had plenty of time to make their preferences known since the Raptors shocked the Milwaukee Bucks to win the Eastern Conference this past Sunday night.
- Game 1 point spread: We’ve hopped between pick ’em and Toronto -1 the past few days. This makes for an awkward read. Squares (the public) usually prefer to take the superior team at home. Here, the superior team tips off the series on the road. Sharps are driving the line in Toronto’s direction whenever the game sits on pick ’em. But pro bettors aren’t pushing it any further.
- Series price: As Matt Youmans reported Tuesday in The Post, William Hill’s posted price of Golden State -300, Toronto +250 represents a global consensus (risk $300 to win $100 on the Warriors, risk $100 to win $250 on the Raptors). If you split the difference, that suggests Golden State claiming the Larry O’Brien trophy about 73 percent of the time, Toronto 27 percent.
Many of you may be wondering why Golden State is such an overwhelming series favorite when Toronto has home-court advantage in the best-of-seven. That Game 1 line near pick ’em gives you a hint. Based on current perceptions of these finalists, Golden State will be about 50/50 to win each of four possible road games (higher if Kevin Durant can return at full strength). The Warriors will be closer to 70 percent to win their home games straight up at point spreads in the range of -6¹/₂ to -7¹/₂.
Turning the percentages into decimals (.5 wins in each of four road games, .7 wins in each of three home games), the Warriors would end seven games with 4.1 wins and 2.9 losses. Golden State gets there just by playing to expectations. Toronto has to play way above expectations to have a chance.
As you consider your possible bets:
- The case for Golden State: Experience as a unit with championships on the line, depth (the Warriors just swept Portland without Durant), a proven penchant for using extra gears when needed on both sides of the floor, and the ability to thrive at fast or slow paces.
- The case for Toronto: Grit, 3-point shooting acumen that might match the Warriors, playoff experience for a few key individuals, and a hefty return if the Raptors can surprise. Sharps don’t necessarily have to believe that Toronto “will” win to bet the team for value. If sharps believe the series split should be something closer to 67-33 percent (which would be -220/+180) rather than 73-27 percent … or if they believe game-by-game lines should be closer to Toronto -2¹/₂ at home, +4¹/₂ on the road … then pro bettors will be rooting for the Raptors.
Durant will miss Thursday’s opener as he continues to recover from a calf injury. There’s still a chance he won’t be able to play at all in this series. A healthy Durant would nudge the math more toward Golden State.
