The NFL released its 2021 regular-season schedule last week. While it has always been a big deal, it’s amazing how much mainstream media coverage it received from a gambling perspective, with writers and broadcasters talking about the Week 1 lines and making picks.

It was only a few years ago that I was just about the only journalist to make opening-week picks against the spread four months before the season. These days, everyone seems to be giving their opinion on what to bet.

This is good for the industry overall, so I welcome it. I couldn’t help but notice, however, that so many of these prognosticators were missing the point of betting this far out. Granted, they mentioned that value can be found before the lines move (which is true), but then they handicapped the games based on which rookies they thought would make an impact, how the teams would match up and so forth.

Now, obviously the goal is to have the winning side when the games are played, but most people don’t address the most important points of whether to make your bets now or later: Are you getting the best number now to make it worthwhile to tie up part of your bankroll for nearly four months? You should be handicapping the line (and the betting markets) more than handicapping the actual teams. Besides, if you’re just handicapping the teams, you can rest assured that has all been factored into the line anyway.

Last year, I went 4-0 ATS with my early Week 1 picks at VSiN.com. I was prouder, however, of the fact that bettors who joined me in these early bets got the best of the number in three cases.

Here are the four 2021 Week 1 games worth a wager in late May.

BUCCANEERS (-6.5) over Cowboys: The season opener will be a betting monster with the defending champions hosting the always-popular Cowboys. With Dak Prescott back, the Cowboys will get plenty of support, but I can’t help but think that more bettors will be jumping on the Tom Brady bandwagon, so grabbing the Bucs -6.5 makes sense now. This is bound to get to at least 7, where we could buy back on the Cowboys and try to hit a “side” (where one bet wins and the other pushes). Even if it drops to 6, we won’t lose much value.

Jaguars (-2.5) over TEXANS: This line has already jumped from -1.5 and has even hit -3 at several books. I understand some bettors might not want to bet this game until we find out the status of Deshaun Watson’s legal cases. If he doesn’t play, this line will certainly jump and we could have a nice shot at a middle.

LIONS (+7.5) over 49ers: The biggest spread in Week 1 comes from a road favorite. A few books opened at 49ers -7 and have joined everyone else at -7.5, but I’ll fade that move and take the Lions now. It’s possible this could go higher, but we won’t lose much value if it goes to 8 or 9 and have a great ticket if it drops.

RAIDERS (+4.5) over Ravens: The Week 1 “Monday Night Football” game has seen the most volatile line movement so far. Several books outside Nevada, including DraftKings and William Hill, opened the Ravens -5.5, but the SuperBook Sports went low with the Ravens -3.5. As of Thursday, the line had mostly settled at 4.5 — and I still like the Raiders at that price. This will be their first game in Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium with fans, and I believe this line will get bet down through the spring and summer.