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When the line opened at seven points earlier this week for Sunday’s Giants-Texans game at MetLife Stadium, my first reaction was, “Yee-Haw!” I don’t know if “Mattress Mack” put down a couple of million on the Texans at that price, but that was certainly my first impression.

After all, the Giants’ six victories this season have come by one, three, eight, five, four and six points. They trailed many of those games late, a trait that’s usually a hindrance to winning by any kind of margin.

During the course of the week, however, the number has taken a bit of a nosedive and sits at a potentially more manageable Giants -5. Now there’s a decision to make.

At 1-6-1, the Texans are nominally the worst opponent the Giants will have faced to date. Yet, they have a strong running game led by rookie Dameon Pierce, and their defense has traveled pretty well this season. Houston allowed an average of 15 PPG in its first three road games before losing 38-20 at Las Vegas. 

Not only that, but the Giants lost possibly their best defensive player, Xavier McKinney, for a few games after he suffered a hand injury while on vacation during the bye week. So the blueprint certainly is there for another back-and-forth Giants game that never sees them in the lead by more than a field goal.

However, I’m going to stick with an angle that’s been working as the Giants have built an NFC-best 6-2 record against the spread. Brian Daboll and Wink Martindale both come from the AFC, and I believe they provide the Giants an institutional edge against teams from the other conference. Big Blue is 3-0 against the Titans, Ravens and Jaguars. Their total margin of victory was 11 points against a composite spread of +14, which adds up to a 25-point over-performance versus the market.

I believe Wink & Co. will have answers for a one-trick pony Houston offense, and Saquon Barkley will find running room against the Texans defense that ranks last in the NFL by a wide margin in stopping the run.

It took Tom Brady 55 minutes and 25 seconds to finally generate a touchdown last week in a 16-13 win over the Rams in the NFL’s Anti-Marquis matchup of the year. Now Brady has to drag his distracted, 45-year-old bones across the ocean to face a spry, overachieving Seattle squad. The Seahawks are taking a majority of the money – so why has the line risen from Bucs -1.5 to -3? Hmm.

The line has plummeted as we all await definitive word on whether Josh Allen will be able to play after injuring his right elbow versus the Jets. I believe if Allen does sit, even this smaller number would provide Closing Line Value on Minnesota. And though everyone is fixated on Allen, the Vikings have added a weapon in TE T.J. Hockenson who perfectly augments everything else they do offensively, and they are going up against a battered Bills defense.

Like Bucs-Seahawks, here’s another game that features reverse line movement. The Dolphins are taking 70 percent of the money at DraftKings and yet the line has moved toward Cleveland. Hoping the Browns’ 80-yard edge in aggregate rushing offense and defense will come into play on an 82-degree day.

It’s interesting that the 3-6 Jaguars are getting two fewer points at Arrowhead than the Titans, then 5-2, received on Sunday night. Though K.C. failed to cover those double digits, you have to go back just two weeks to find a massive 44-23 road win over a good 49ers team.

Both teams have terrible records and long injury lists, and the Amazing Kreskin could probably tell you better than the team doctors which stars are going to sit or start. The handicapping angle I’ll hang my hat on for this one is the Steelers are coming off a bye, while the Saints are traveling off a Monday nighter. Not much, but it’s all I’ve got.

If I asked you which of these teams is ranked 32nd (last) in the NFL in offensive yards per game, you’d probably shout “Broncos!” But the answer is the Titans. Combine that with Denver’s No. 2 ranking in defensive yards allowed plus a few points of a head start from the spread, and this looks like a solid road-’dog choice.

Neanderthal and prehistoric are a couple of the words I’ve used to describe the Bears’ offense this season. But I tip my cap to offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, who has completely unlocked Justin Fields’ talents to the tune of 31 PPG over the past three games — against the Patriots, Cowboys and Dolphins. Detroit’s 32nd-ranked yardage defense figures to be in for a very long day.

Kind of a crazy move by the Colts bringing in non-coach Jeff Saturday to replace Frank Reich. He only has a few days to figure out how his disappointing offensive line can better protect second-year QB Sam Ehlinger. Raiders have blown some big leads this season en route to 2-6 but here’s one spot where they should be able to pull away.

Though this is a last stand for the Packers, I really don’t see what they’re going to be able to accomplish against the Dallas defense, especially with Aaron Rodgers’ thumb and Aaron Jones’ ankle being midweek issues. Mike McCarthy should have an enjoyable homecoming.

Rams’ offense has fizzled, and now Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocol. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is questionable with a hamstring. The backups are John Wolford and Colt McCoy, respectively. I think McCoy would have a little more to work with.

Though the 49ers are coming off a steamrolling of the Rams, we are just two weeks removed from their 21-point home loss to the Chiefs. Chargers come in with a better record (5-3 vs. 4-4). Line seems line a leap of faith.

The Philly Mojo has taken a hit with the World Series and MLS Cup ending in losses on the same day. Though this might not be the night the 1972 Dolphins get to pop their corks, I do like Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders to keep this within single digits.

Best Bets: Bears, Giants, Commanders.

Lock of the week: Bears (Locks 6-3 in 2022).

Last week: 6-4-3 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.

Thursday: Falcons.