Commercial Content, 21+

With the heartbreaking news that Rafael Nadal had to withdraw from his semifinal match with Nick Kyrgios with an abdominal tear, there is now just one men’s semifinal match at Wimbledon on Friday.

Let’s break ’em down:

As you can see from the odds, the bookmakers are not giving hometown hero Cam Norrie much of a chance to get by the pre-tournament favorite, Novak Djokovic, in the first semifinal. This despite Djokovic needing to mount a monumental comeback from two sets down against Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals. 

Norrie also needed to mount a comeback to win his quarterfinal match with David Goffin, using his fitness and riding the energy of the crowd to a dramatic victory.

Unfortunately for Norrie, his best asset — an unrelenting gas tank — likely won’t be a factor against Djokovic. The only way for that to pay off would be for Norrie to nab a set or two and drag Novak into a fifth set. And even if Norrie accomplishes that, Djokovic has no issues maintaining his level for five sets of grueling tennis.

To beat Djokovic, you need to execute a near-flawless brand of aggressive tennis and that just isn’t really in Norrie’s DNA. Norrie can hang in rallies and won’t beat himself, but against Djokovic that is just delaying the inevitable. 

Getting 8/1 on a player in the semifinals may seem appealing, but even that number isn’t high enough to take on Djokovic in this spot. However, tipping the Over 30.5 games does have some appeal. Norrie is not the type of player who will make a ton of mistakes and roll over for his opponent to rack up cheap points and games, so there’s a good chance the Brit pushes Djokovic in a couple of sets to get this match over the total.

Over 30.5 games (-140) — BetMGM