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We’re right at the midpoint of the MLB season, so there’s no better time to check in on the World Series futures market. Most sportsbooks now list the Yankees (58-23) at +400, which is down from +600 back in late May.
According to Caesars Sportsbook’s Max Meyer, their World Series handle on the Yankees surged to 46.3 percent over the past month, while the other teams in the league accounted for 53.7 percent of the action.
MLB World Series odds
Provided by FanDuel
Astros can rival Yankees in World Series futures
It’s been a slow climb to the top of the odds board for a Yankees team that, one month into the season, was still available at +700 despite their hot start.
However, something tells me that sportsbooks are welcoming the action, perhaps after seeing how the Yankees fared against the Astros in their five games this season. Houston won three of the five meetings, but it is the optics of a combined no-hitter against the Yankees on the road that many will remember.
As good as the Yankees have been, they’re only 4.5 games ahead of the Astros (53-27) for the best record in baseball. Moreover, there are still some areas that would concern me if I’m a Yankees fan.
For one, New York ranks 20th with a .238 batting average. And while Houston is only four points better at .242, in high leverage situations, the Astros rank third with a .294 batting average while the Yankees rank 22nd with a .235 average.
If you like the Astros and have yet to take a position, now would be the time to do so. According to tankathon.com, the Astros have the softest remaining schedule as their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .465. In contrast, the Yankees have the 11th most challenging schedule as their opponents have a .506 winning percentage.
Thus, it’s likely that Houston’s current odds of +600 will only get shorter as we head into the second half of the season.
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Padres and Brewers offer value as longshots
If you’re looking to back teams with longer odds, you might consider a play on the Padres at +1400 or the Brewers at +1800. San Diego is still without their All-Star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. due to a broken wrist.
Tatis is currently on the 60-day IL but is expected to return at some point this season. At 46-37, the Padres are clearly in the mix for a postseason berth, and they currently have the 11th softest schedule with an opponent win percentage of .491.
Lastly, Milwaukee remains a clear threat given their starting pitching. Brewers’ ace Corbin Burnes is starting to round into form with wins in his past four outings. Burnes logged a quality start in each of those outings as he’s allowed just four earned runs in his last 20 2/3 innings of work.
Milwaukee’s dealt with multiple starters on the IL as Freddy Peralta and Adrian Houser are still nursing injuries. The Brewers currently have the ninth softest schedule with an opponent winning percentage of .487. If they show any ambition at the trade deadline, they could be well-positioned to make a deep playoff run, given the quality of their starting pitching.
