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Post prop kingpin Dave Blezow is back with his annual NFL picks to help you cash in with big payouts on Most Valuable Player and league leaders in passing, rushing and receiving yards.
Most Valuable Player
Blezow’s breakdown: MVP has become exclusively a quarterback award.
Lamar Jackson scooped up all 49 first-place votes in 2023 to make it 11 years in a row and 16 of the past 17 for passers.
Christian McCaffrey finished third and Tyreek Hill fifth but they are 11th and tied for 24th, respectively, on the 2024 odds board.
Only three active players have won MVP: Aaron Rodgers (four), Jackson (two), Patrick Mahomes (two).
Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are the heirs apparent and C.J. Stroud has positioned himself as the next big thing.
But the selection here is the favorite, Mahomes. All eyes will be on the Chiefs as they go for a historic threepeat.
The AFC West looks weak so another division title is likely, the Chiefs have a few marquee non-conference road games in which Mahomes can shine and the offense is loaded with Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy joining Travis Kelce & Co.
Winner
Patrick Mahomes (+500)
Next man up
Joe Burrow (+900)
Mid-range threat
C.J. Stroud (10/1)
The odds:
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs watches preseason game action against the Chicago Bears at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on August 22, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. Getty ImagesPassing yards
Blezow’s breakdown: Passing yards and MVP are different animals.
Consider in 2023, Tua Tagovailoa threw for the most yards and didn’t receive a single MVP vote.
Mahomes went from first in 2022 to sixth last season, but his odds have doubled to a more manageable +500.
Joe Burrow is sitting at an enticing +800 and both he and Ja’Marr Chase are healthy, but the Bengals could face some bad weather in the final three weeks and that could tamp down the numbers.
Mahomes is very much a threat in a stacked KC offense.
Houston’s Stroud adds Stefon Diggs and pass-catching RB Joe Mixon.
But the choice is a Tagovailoa repeat playing with Tyreek Hill in good weather at +850.
Winner
Tua Tagovailoa (+850)
Super soph
C.J. Stroud (+600)
Live long shot
Brock Purdy (25/1)
The odds:
Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins looks to pass against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter of a preseason game at Hard Rock Stadium on August 17, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. Getty ImagesRushing yards
Blezow’s breakdown: Probably the most interesting category this season.
Legend Derrick Henry is now a Raven and is available at 10/1.
Christian McCaffrey is the heavy favorite after winning by almost 300 yards but it’s hard to pay the +300 premium with his injury history.
The 49ers offense may also evolve more in the direction of Brock Purdy and big-money WR Brandon Aiyuk.
Health is also a concern for Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and even Breece Hall, a year removed from his knee injury.
The most intriguing vehicle on the rehab lot is Kyren Williams, whose 95.3 yards per game were the highest in the NFL.
The choice is motivated ex-Raider Josh Jacobs, who seems like a good fit in Green Bay.
Winner
Josh Jacobs (15/1)
Mid-range threat
Kyren Williams (12/1)
Way under the radar
Kenneth Williams III (30/1)
The odds:
Josh Jacobs #8 of the Green Bay Packers warms up against the Denver Broncos during a preseason game at Empower Field At Mile High on August 18, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. Getty ImagesReceiving yards
Blezow’s breakdown: Another market that can go any which way because a receiver’s yardage is largely dependent on his health, that of his quarterback, the style of offense and even whether the defense is good enough to get off the field.
As an example, Justin Jefferson may be the best receiver in the NFL but how far will his numbers be dragged down by Sam Darnold?
Will Aaron Rodgers take Garrett Wilson to another level?
I’ve already picked Tagovailoa to lead in passing yards so that would give Hill a great shot to repeat if I’m correct.
Ja’Marr Chase at +900 is hard to pass up.
But the selection is CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys, who lost out to Hill by just 50 yards in 2023.
Winner
Cee Dee Lamb (+700)
Fine favorite
Tyreek Hill (+450)
Mid-range threat
Amon-Ra St. Brown (11/1)
The odds:
Other NFL wagers worth making
In 2023, this side helping of props went 2-2. We cashed on Kyle Pitts Under 700.5 receiving yards and Texans Over 5.5 wins.
Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles flushed our other two bets: Jets to win AFC East and Garrett Wilson Over 8.5 receiving TDs.
The five-year record is 12-8 heading into these four predictions:
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* Daniel Jones Over 2,675.5 yards passing (-120): The Giants could be trailing a lot, they drafted Malik Nabers for Jones, and Danny Dimes might be less eager to run because of his knee injury.
* Patriots Under 4.5 wins (+110): It will be fun for fans of all teams to watch the utter destruction of the Patriots in Year 1 after Bill Belichick. They have the second-hardest schedule per Sharp Football.
* Keon Coleman Over 650.5 yards(-115): Josh Allen will need a new favorite target with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone. The rookie from Florida State fits the Bill.
* Chargers Over 8.5 wins (-160): The Bolts lost a lot of firepower but Jim Harbaugh will build a more rugged group around Justin Herbert. Lots of potential W’s on the second-easiest schedule.






