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Most sports fans look at the week after the Super Bowl as an opportunity to take a deep breath. The PGA Tour schedule suggests otherwise.

The 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the first “Signature Event” of the campaign, comes our way this week, and we will finally get our first truly star-studded field of the season.

Scottie Scheffler is in his usual perch atop the betting odds, but for the first time this year, he’ll have to contend with Rory McIlroy and Tommy Fleetwood.

Scheffler is +320 to win the event, putting him well ahead of defending champion McIlroy (13/1), Fleetwood (24/1), Justin Rose (27/1), and Si Woo Kim (27/1).

New Jersey native Chris Gotterup, who already has two wins this season after taking home last week’s Waste Management, is 32/1 at bet365 Sportsbook.

This field is loaded with star power, but Pebble Beach does have a track record of producing some long-shot winners. Wyndham Clark (2024), Tom Hoge (2022), Nick Taylor (2020), and Ted Potter Jr. (2018) all cashed at big prices when they lifted the trophy.

We’ll see if we can find the next long-shot winner at this iconic course.

A volatile-but-talented player with his fair share of shining moments, most notably winning the 2019 Open Championship, Shane Lowry is always worth a hard look when he gets into this range, even if it’s been a while since he’s broken through.

The Irishman hasn’t won on the PGA Tour in a solo event since lifting the Claret Jug seven years ago, and his last professional win (outside of team events) came on the DP World Tour at the BMW Championship in September 2022.

That said, Lowry is always dangerous in this kind of setup. He’s a dogged competitor with a reputation for punching up in big events, and he’s got a crafty skillset that is required at Pebble Beach.

Lowry took a break from this event between 2020 and 2024, but he came back with a sparkling performance in 2025, finishing runner-up, two shots behind his buddy McIlroy.

He may not have a win yet in 2026, but it’s hard to suggest any player this side of Gotterup is off to a better start this season than Ryan Gerard. The 26-year-old was a runner-up to Gotterup at the Sony Open, finished T2 behind Scheffler at the American Express, and then was T11 at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks back. Those results came on the heels of a playoff loss at the Mauritius Open in December.

This is Gerard’s Pebble Beach debut, which explains why he’s being offered at 75/1, but don’t let that scare you off a player who has been shot out of a canon to start 2026.

This is your boom-or-bust play of the week.

North Dakota-raised Tom Hoge is a past winner at Pebble Beach, but that’s just one of a number of terrific recent showings for the 36-year-old on this track. He finished 17th or better in four of his last five trips to this event, including a T6 alongside Scheffler in 2024. His game clearly jives with this setup.

Hoge’s current form is a mixed bag, but that’s actually an improvement from where it was at the end of the 2025 season, when he was missing cuts left and right.

Hoge missed the cut last week in Phoenix and barely scraped by to a T70 at the Farmers, but he posted a top-10 finish at the American Express less than a month ago.

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.