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For the third time this season and second time in the last month, the Seahawks and 49ers will face off in a familiar divisional rivalry that’s been pretty one-sided this season.

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San Francisco swept the season series with two wins by a combined 28 points, and it’s dealing as a sizable home favorite on the heels of the NFL’s longest win streak. Can Seattle keep this one close against one of the NFC’s best teams?

Here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s NFL playoff contest, which kicks off at 4:40 p.m. ET on Fox.

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49ers vs. Seahawks pick

49ers vs. Seahawks prediction and analysis

It feels like all of the attention heading into this postseason (and, frankly, all season long) has been on the Chiefs, Bills and Eagles, and even the Bengals after their AFC-best eight-game win streak. Yet the hottest team in the league is San Francisco, which just keeps chopping wood amid a dominant 10-game win streak to cap off the regular season.

The 49ers aren’t just squeaking out victories, either. Seven of those 10 wins have come by double digits, including a 25-point win to close the year, and they’ve outscored teams by an NFL-best 16 points per game since Nov. 1. For context: the 2007 Patriots, owners of the best scoring differential in league history, outscored teams by 19.7 points per game.


  Nick Bosa Getty Images Nick Bosa Getty Images

Rookie Brock Purdy has done his best Tom Brady impression over the last six weeks, averaging 218 passing yards with a 65.6 QBR on the year – which would rank fifth among all starters across the entire season. He’s also thrown 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions in that stretch and was nearly perfect (141.2 passer rating) in his most recent start, firing three touchdowns with zero turnovers to extend this team’s lengthy win streak.

It helps when he’s surrounded by arguably the best collection of skill-position talent in the league and the NFL’s most suffocating defense, which ranks first in average yards allowed (300.6) and points allowed (16.3). San Francisco also leads the league in turnover margin (+13) and scoring differential (+173) and ranks second in total DVOA. In short: this team is an absolute juggernaut, even with a rookie quarterback under center.

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Conversely, the Seahawks have found incredible success this year behind resurgent passer Geno Smith, who briefly flirted with MVP consideration after a hot start to the season. He faltered over the back half of the regular season, though, throwing seven INTs over his last eight starts amid Seattle’s 3-5 tailspin.

Smith especially struggled in two games against the 49ers this year. He was held without a touchdown in Week 2 in Seattle’s worst offensive showing of the season (7 points), and he needed 44 attempts just to hit 238 yards and a score in that 21-13 loss in Week 15. On the other side? Purdy threw for 217 yards and two TDs in his first-ever road start, even with star wideout Deebo Samuel sidelined for that win.

Samuel returned last week for the Niners and should be good to go this weekend, making this an even more challenging task for the Seahawks to overcome. I just don’t see what changes in Saturday’s matchup from what we’ve seen in the regular season – both when these teams played and their overall body of work, with Seattle mired in a 1-7 slump against the spread and the 49ers riding an 8-2 ATS run.

In truth, there just isn’t a whole lot to get excited about on Seattle’s side other than the big number. That doesn’t mean much against a team that routinely wins by double digits. San Francisco is 4-2 ATS this year when laying a touchdown or more, and it should make quick work of a familiar foe in this one.

49ers vs. Seahawks odds (via BetMGM)

  • 49ers -9.5 (-110), moneyline -500
  • Seahawks +9.5 (-110), moneyline +375
  • O/U 42.5 (-110)

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