Joel Embiid isn’t a towel-tosser.
The night after Kyrie Irving and the Boston Celtics meekly bowed out of the Eastern Conference playoffs with another woeful loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, the Philadelphia 76ers survived to force a seventh game Sunday (7 p.m., TNT) in their series with the Toronto Raptors.
Philadelphia’s 112-101 final tally in Thursday’s Game 6 was misleadingly close. With Embiid on the floor, the Sixers outscored Toronto by 40 points. A late garbage-time surge helped trim a big deficit when the result was not in doubt.
Why does a healthy Embiid mean so much to Philadelphia’s chances? As we discussed last week, his presence on both sides of the court gives opponents headaches. He’s a threat to score, a threat to draw fouls, a magnet for defenders who frees up outside shooters. And, of course, he’s a shot-blocker and rebounder.
Philadelphia’s rebound advantages in its three victories have been by margins of 53-36, 45-35 and 52-34. That means extra chances to score on offense, and fewer chances for opponents to get put-backs on their missed shots.
Can the Sixers secure that kind of rebounding edge on the road in a dramatic Game 7 with everything on the line? Oddsmakers were skeptical, posting an opening line of Toronto -7 just after Game 6 ended. First money hit underdog Philadelphia, lowering the early line to Toronto by 6¹/₂.
Home teams typically get market respect in Game 7s because of historical trends (as do Unders on scoring totals). But there’s been a very big difference in this series between “healthy Embiid” and “under-the-weather Embiid”:
- Philadelphia has covered the point spread in its victories by margins of 12¹/₂, 22¹/₂ and 12¹/₂ (would have been much more without garbage time).
- Toronto has covered the spread in its victories by margins of 6¹/₂, 7 and 29¹/₂ points, in games when Embiid was either dealing with a sore knee or illness. Not a single game in the series has come within five points of the spread. That gives you a hint of the volatility created by Embiid’s readiness. If morning reports suggest Embiid will be at or near 100 percent, analytics-minded sharps will back this underdog at +7 or higher (and possibly +6¹/₂ and higher). The public is likely to lay less than seven with a home team in a bounce-back spot trying to clinch.
- Milwaukee loved seeing a seventh game in this series. The Bucks will be fresh as a daisy after sweeping Detroit 4-0 in the first round and coasting past Boston 4-1 in the second. Those records match Milwaukee’s point-spread performance in the postseason: eight of nine for 89 percent vs. the number.
Milwaukee is in such great form, its futures price to win the NBA championship moved to 2/1 at the Westgate in Las Vegas amid the late-week drama of Kevin Durant’s calf injury.
