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Will the real Virginia Tech please stand up?

After touting the Hokies earlier this season in our biweekly futures piece (50/1 and 100/1), they are finally rounding into form as we near March.

This was a team highly rated by KenPom and various other models, but it has suffered silly losses by never being able to put together a complete game on both ends of the court.

Virginia Tech went on a recent tear, though, winning six games in a row. None of those victories came against the ACC elites, but momentum is key as we near Championship Week.

The streak included wins against Florida State, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh (twice), Syracuse and Virginia before the Hokies lost to North Carolina.

While the competition wasn’t the best, it’s the style of play that is drawing my interest.


  Mike Krzyzewski Getty Images Mike Krzyzewski Getty Images

The ACC this year has been dominated by Duke, with every other squad just trying to fight for the No. 2 spot in the standings. The level of play in the league is at an all-time low, with at most five teams likely to earn a spot in the Big Dance.

So, Duke should run away with the ACC Tournament at Barclays Center in Coach K’s last season, right?

Wrong.

While Duke has been the clear-cut No. 1 team and the ACC’s knight in shining armor, it’s far from perfect. The Blue Devils struggle to defend the perimeter, allow cuts and dishes to open shooters and are one of the worst half-court offenses in the country.

If Duke can’t get in a rhythm, it has collapsed versus lesser competition.

That’s where Virginia Tech comes into play. Yes, the Hokies lost to Duke earlier this season, 76-65, but it took a late run for the Blue Devils to comfortably pull ahead.

Virginia Tech’s style of play gave Duke fits all game, as the Hokies operated at a snail’s pace and forced the Blue Devils to set up their half-court offense.

Virginia Tech had a real chance to win the game, but shot 5-for-19 from 3-point range (26.3 percent). That is uncharacteristic for the Hokies, as they lead the ACC in 3-point percentage (40 percent) this season.

The Hokies possess the style of play to beat Duke and are one of the most balanced teams in the conference, (23rd in AdjO and 73rd in AdjD), so I will grab them at the nice price of +975, with intentions of letting it ride until the end.

Illinois to win Big Ten tournament at +345


  Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn AP Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn AP

I’m never a fan of taking a small number in a tournament format, but that’s how much I believe in the Fighting Illini.

It also speaks to how much I believe Purdue will be an early out in both the Big Ten Tournament and March Madness. Purdue’s suspect defense leaves the door open for the rest of the league to make a run at the title.

Illinois is one of the most balanced teams in the Big Ten, ranking 20th in AdjO and 24th in AdjD. The Illini have been top-tier elite in their conference despite a slow start due to the suspension of Kofi Cockburn, the potential Wooden Award winner.

As soon as Cockburn came back — and was eventually joined by Andre Curbelo — the Illini started to remind everyone why they’re one of the best teams in the conference.

This is a unit that is near top of the Big Ten in scoring and No. 1 in rebounding. The Illini own an efficient, dangerous offense that crashes the boards for more opportunities.

Purdue may be the only team that’s currently better than Illinois, but I will take a stab at the Illini’s small price with the hope of the Boilermakers getting bounced early. If these two meet in the finals, I can potentially buy the other side and secure a very small profit either way.

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