New York Post may be compensated and/or receive an affiliate commission if you click or buy through our links. Featured pricing is subject to change.

By all accounts, Patrick Mahomes has not had the best season of any quarterback. Sure, he is 16-1 as a starter but many agree that win-loss records are an overused stat for QBs. That is why he is not an MVP finalist this year. 

Nonetheless, he is still perceived as the league’s biggest difference-maker and best player. So why are the masses not lining up to back the Kansas City Chiefs (-2) as short home favorites? 

My theory is that too many are overreacting to the few regular season games Kansas City escaped losses with a fortunate play. Yes, the special teams blocked a Denver Broncos winning field goal in Week 10. The Las Vegas Raiders botched a snap that could have led to a winning field goal in Week 13. 

Personally, I would basically dismiss those, regardless if K.C. had lost the game. We routinely see elite teams suffer strange regular-season losses. That’s often why professional bettors back underdogs. The best teams do not always play up to their capabilities, especially in a lengthy regular season. 

The bottom line is that the Chiefs have won and covered four straight games, having seemingly activated their “playoff mode.” I am not ready to wager against them with such a small point spread. A two-point line basically aligns with what they’re trying to achieve, which is to win the game and advance to the Super Bowl. 

With all that being said, I understand the apprehension of backing them to cover this spread. The Bills handed Mahomes his only loss this season, a 30-21 Buffalo home win in Week 11. 

Thus, I see solid value in backing the Bills in a teaser, which is essentially a parlay where you adjust the point spread six points on each leg. Getting the Bills +8 is the only way I am betting this game. I think they have a chance to win and I also do not envision a Chiefs blowout — because I see what many see. This is not the same high-octane Chiefs offense. 

Mahomes is finding ways to win with various late-game heroics, so adjusting the point spread provides that much more value. Obviously moving a spread by six points in your direction provides allure but the key is finding the scenarios where it proves to be a difference-maker. I think we have that here. 

Now, one must also find a second leg for the teaser to cash. The logical choice is moving the Eagles from -6 to Pick’em but one can find other options elsewhere. I happen to have wagered on Ohio State -2.5 against Notre Dame, which has already cashed, but I am not opposed to other Sunday options like the Eagles or even a basketball game.

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.