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LAS VEGAS — It all starts with the coach and quarterback. It mainly starts with Nick Saban, arguably the greatest coach in college football history, and the advantage he gives Alabama in a big game.
Saban’s edge also has a lot to do with the superior talent he’s coaching, and Georgia will field a talent level that’s relatively equal to the Crimson Tide in today’s national championship game in Indianapolis. One major exception is at the quarterback position, where Alabama features Heisman Trophy-winner Bryce Young.
The Bulldogs are the favorites in a rematch of the SEC title game mostly due to their defense. Georgia was ranked No. 1 for a majority of the season and coasted into the conference title game with a defense allowing 6.9 points and 230 yards per game.
Media hype and stats can be misleading. I bet Alabama +6.5 in the teams’ first meeting partly because the Georgia defense had not been tested by a talented passer such as Young, who has speedy receivers capable of stretching the field. Young passed for 421 yards and three touchdowns without an interception as the Tide rolled over the Bulldogs 41-24.
Nick Saban Mario Terrana/Image of Sport/SipAlabama attempted 44 passes and ran the ball 26 times, a game plan that Georgia coach Kirby Smart should have expected yet still caught him by surprise. The Tide can move on the ground too, as Brian Robinson Jr. showed in a playoff semifinal by running for 204 yards to fuel a 27-6 victory over Cincinnati.
It’s Young’s turn again. It’s doubtful he will have the same success against a Bulldogs defense that got a wake-up call the first time around, but he’s a better bet to make clutch plays than Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett.
Aside from Young, Alabama has elite NFL prospects at outside linebacker (Will Anderson Jr.) and wide receiver (Jameson Williams). The Tide will have the three best players on the field and an ace on the sideline. Saban is 4-0 against Smart. It’s tough to beat a good team twice in a season, and the Bulldogs are hungry for revenge after getting a 17-point beatdown on Dec. 4.
But it all comes back to the underdog having the better coach and quarterback. I bet Alabama +3. While the number has changed, the pick remains the same.
Pick: Alabama +2.5
