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There was so much chaos on the coaching carousel in the SEC this week that you could be forgiven for forgetting that Georgia will take on Alabama in the conference championship on Saturday night.

The betting market for this game will be intriguing, as Georgia boasts the better recent form, but Alabama beat the Bulldogs in Athens in Week 5, and the Tide has more on the line at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. 

Georgia will still get into the College Football Playoff with a loss on Saturday, but Alabama could be left on the outside looking in if it loses and other results don’t go its way. 

Usually, the betting market will back the team in the must-win spot, causing the odds to shift in that direction, but that may not happen for this tilt. The market seems down on Alabama compared to Georgia, even though Kirby Smart is 1-7 against the Tide as head coach of the ‘Dogs.

But if you look past those narratives, it’s easy to see why Georgia is getting respect. 

The Bulldogs have improved as the season has progressed. The offense, which held Georgia back in the first half of the campaign, has found its footing with Gunner Stockton leading the charge. He should be up to the task of solving this Alabama defense.

The Tide are going in the other direction. Not only did Alabama lose to Oklahoma at home in Week 12, but the Crimson Tide were also forced to work hard to get wins over Missouri, South Carolina, LSU, and Auburn down the stretch. 

And while Georgia was pushed to the limit by Georgia Tech in Week 13, they’re just a couple of weeks removed from a 35-10 torching of Texas, which at the time boasted some of the best defensive metrics in the country.

If you look at strengths and weaknesses, there are a lot of similarities between these two teams. They both have outstanding defenses, but they are less consistent on offense. The only difference is that it seems like Stockton and the Bulldogs are clicking at the right time, while Ty Simpson and the Crimson Tide have some issues to sort out.

In a matchup where most of the X’s and O’s are a wash, we’ll back the in-form team as a slight favorite in this headliner.

The Play: Georgia -2.5 (-114, FanDuel)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.