Our horse racing betting expert is here with picks for the Arlington Million, one of the premier turf races run annually in the U.S., which takes place Saturday afternoon at Louisville’s Churchill Downs. Post time for the 11th race and main event: 6:25 p.m. ET.

Arlington Race Course in Arlington Heights, Ill. was permanently closed last year and the site was purchased by the Chicago Bears as a potential stadium location, forcing the Grade I event to be moved to a different venue. 

Smooth Like Strait is the lukewarm morning line favorite in the $1 million, 1 1/8 miles race, with three other entrants at odds below 5-1 in the nine-horse field.

Without a doubt, SET PIECE will be passing horses in the stretch. Whether he rolls past the entire field depends on racing luck.

The deep closer, pegged a 4-1 on the morning-line, is tough to hold off if he gets clear sailing. Set Piece has won 10 of his 21 lifetime starts, including a pair of Grade 2 events on the turf over his last six starts. One of those victories came at Churchill Downs in the Wise Dan Stakes last year.

Set Piece was unable to close into a very slow pace at Keeneland in his first start this year. The 6-year-old gelding made amends at Pimlico in May, capturing the Grade 2 Dinner Party Stakes on Preakness Day.

In his last outing, Set Piece skimmed the rail in Saratoga’s Forbidden Apple Stakes. Jockey Florent Geroux looked for an opening in the stretch and couldn’t find one until it was way too late. Set Piece wound up fifth as the favorite, beaten three lengths.

There’s enough speed in Saturday’s field to set up Set Piece’s late kick. As long as Geroux finds running room in the stretch, this Brad Cox-gelding should be first under the wire.

Put SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT in the starting gate and he’ll give his best.
In terms of consistent stakes horses, it would be difficult to find another horse in the world as consistent as this 5-year-old horse. He’s finished in the money in 18 of 20 lifetime turf races while taking on the best of the best. He’s competed in 12 consecutive Grade 1 or 2 events.

Smooth Like Strait has run a majority of his races in mile events. His record in 1 1/18-mile contests consists of one win, two seconds and a third.
Smooth Like Strait is always a part of the early mix. He’ll either be on the lead or running second in the early going.

Hall of Famer John Velazquez will guide Smooth Like Strait for the first time for trainer Michael McCarthy, who is looking to end the horse’s ‘close but no cigar’ tendencies. 
Smooth Like Strait has lost his last six races, though only one of those defeats was by more than a half-length. He was beaten two lengths in last start, Santa Anita’s Shoemaker Mile, after a fast pace in which Smooth Like Strait ran the first six furlongs in 1:09.

Smooth Like Strait will be right there at the finish once again, but look for Set Piece to catch him near the finish.

Trainer Brian Lynch deserves a lot of credit for his work with ADMISSION OFFICE. The 7-year-old gelding hadn’t run since February 2021 when he made his season debut in June.
Entered in the Million’s prep race, the Arlington Stakes, Admission Office made up five lengths in the stretch and won at 7-1 odds. 
That was Admission Office’s first victory since June 2020, when he won the Grade 3 Louisville at Churchill.

In his second start this year, Admission Office finished last in a five-horse field in a non-graded stakes at Belmont Park. It would be unfair to say the horse ‘bounced’ off his big effort at Churchill. The Belmont race was contested at 1 ½ miles and the pace was extremely slow. Admission Office had no shot to unleash his closing kick in that event.

Cutting back in distance, Admission Office can be a factor on Saturday and collect at least a piece of the purse. Rated at 10-1 in the morning line, he’s quite worthy of being thrown into all exotic wagers.