When Army and Navy meet every year, it makes college football fans think of many things: tradition, toughness, option. One thing you won’t see on the list is scoring.
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When Army and Navy meet every year, it makes college football fans think of many things: tradition, toughness, option. One thing you won’t see on the list is scoring. Army-Navy has gone Under the total in 10 straight and 18 of the last 31 meetings.
Needless to say, oddsmakers have caught on. The total for this year’s game is 32.5, and that’s probably still too high. Nevertheless, the bottom line is sportsbooks have now adjusted to the Under trend, so there is very little value betting that number.
Instead, I’m looking at the side. I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Neither team is having a great season, and a big reason is they don’t have the right quarterbacks to run the option. The vaunted triple option offense starts with a quarterback who makes the right pre- and post-snap decisions. Though these teams still both rank top 10 in rushing offense, neither has a quarterback that scares defenses.
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The difference for me is Army’s quarterback has started playing better down the stretch. Tyhier Tyler has rushed for 271 yards in the Cadets’ last three games. I think his emergence as a runner will be key in this game.
Army’s Tyhier Tyler Getty ImagesBoth teams have played better in the last few weeks. Army lost to a good Troy team by one then blew out UConn and UMass. Meanwhile, Navy played tough in close losses to Cincinnati and Notre Dame before upsetting UCF.
I expect this to be a tight game, so I’m grabbing the points with the underdog in a matchup that should come down to the last possession.
The play: Army +2.5
