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It is rare to get +140 odds to fade one of MLB’s worst pitchers, but that’s the deal Tuesday night when the Oakland Athletics take on Glenn Otto and the Texas Rangers.
Although he’s coming off his best start of the season, Otto’s season-long numbers are bleak.
Through 5 1 ¹/₃ innings, the 26-year-old has a 5.26 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and his predictive metrics, like his 5.26 xFIP and 5.81 xERA, suggest he’s earned every bit of his stat line.
Per Statcast, Otto ranks in the 4th percentile in walk rate, 17th percentile in strikeout rate, 22nd percentile in barrel percentage and 34th percentile in hard hit rate. In other words, Otto walks too many batters, strikes out too few and gives up way too much hard contact. Not a recipe for success.
Glenn Otto APSo why is Otto a decent betting favorite on Tuesday? For one, he’s taking on a meager Oakland offense. And his counterpart, James Kaprielian, boasts a 5.06 ERA, 5.42 xFIP and has a similarly ineffective StatCast profile.
There’s no doubt the Rangers, even if not great, are a much better team than the Athletics and deserve to be favorites. But Tuesday’s pitching matchup is incredibly volatile and that almost always is a good thing for the underdog. Getting +140 to go against Otto is almost an auto-bet no matter the opposition.
The Play: Athletics +140 (BetMGM)
