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Only three teams in the Premier League have more wins since the World Cup than Aston Villa, which has put together an 11-3-6 (W-D-L) stretch since Christmas to give itself a decent chance of qualifying for a European competition.
While Unai Emery and Villa deserve a ton of credit for the results they’ve collected over the second half of the season, there are some concerns that this stretch has been a lot of smoke and mirrors.
The Villans have scored 30 goals and conceded 21 over their last 20 matches, but their expected goals output is much more pedestrian.
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham pick
(10 a.m. Eastern)
Aston Villa has created 26.8 expected goals in that span and conceded 29.3.
According to Understat, a team with that kind of statistical portfolio should have around 28 points. Villa has 36.
While Aston Villa has stabilized since the World Cup, things have gone the other direction for Tottenham Hotspur.
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It has been an uneven season and the market seems to have written it off a bit in this spot.
It’s hard to trust Spurs as a favorite, but they’re the underdog in this spot and have plenty to play for as they’ll need to get something from this match to keep Villa from taking their Europa League spot.
This is a great buy-low, sell-high spot.
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham prediction
Tottenham (+200, FanDuel)
