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The 2022 World Series continues to be a roller coaster. After getting stormed in Game 3, the Houston Astros looked like they could be in a tough spot, needing a win against Phillies ace Aaron Nola at Citizens Bank Park to get back into the best-of-7. Not only did the Astros win, but they did it in historic fashion by throwing a combined no-hitter.

Houston’s victory has flipped the odds back in its favor, as the Astros are now -180 favorites to win the World Series ahead of Game 5, which will feature perhaps the biggest pitching mismatch of the series: Justin Verlander vs. Noah Syndergaard (and the Phillies bullpen).

Verlander and the Astros are a -158 road favorite on BetMGM Thursday night. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET and the game is broadcast on Fox.

Justin Verlander is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and he’s got a ring, but his World Series record is quite peculiar. The 39-year-old is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in eight starts in the Fall Classic. It’s likely more noise than anything else but is an interesting note as he heads into a pivotal outing for the Astros. 

Verlander is a near-lock to win the AL Cy Young after posting a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in the regular season, but his postseason has been a bit rocky. Verlander owns a 7.20 ERA in 15 postseason innings and has struggled with walks and home runs (relative to his regular season numbers) in October. And even though he did struggle in his first start against the Phillies, he should match up well against a lineup that is aggressive and isn’t a stranger to striking out.

Verlander’s counterpart, Noah Syndergaard, will likely be asked to turn over the Astros lineup once before giving way to a bullpen that was called into action more than Rob Thomson would have liked the night before a bullpen game.

Jose Alvarado, Andrew Bellatti, David Robertson, Zach Eflin, and Brad Hand all pitched in Game 4, but only Alvarado threw more than 16 pitches. Bellatti is probably the only reliever who won’t be available, as he’s pitched two nights in a row.

Houston tapped Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly on Wednesday, but none threw more than 19 pitches, and each should be ready to back up Verlander.

Handicapping a bullpen game, especially in a World Series, is not an easy task, but it does seem like there’s some betting value on the Astros to put together another rout on Thursday. Syndergaard is far from a sure thing to get through the Astros order unscathed and the Phillies bullpen doesn’t have the high-end talent to be an imposing force against this lineup.

Verlander’s World Series record is certainly weird, but it shouldn’t keep bettors away from Houston if that’s where they see value.

Astros -1.5 (+112, FanDuel)