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Real Madrid and Villarreal have booked their spots in the Champions League semi-finals and two more will join them on Wednesday.

One side – Liverpool – has a commanding lead in its tie and *should* get past Benfica at home without incident. However, the second tie between Manchester City and Atletico Madrid remains intriguing, with Atletico leaving Manchester down only 1-0 on aggregate.

But, I’m choosing to steer clear of the sides on tomorrow’s slate and focus on both totals instead. So, without further delay, here are my best bets for Wednesday’s Champions League action.

The first leg between these sides at the Etihad saw an extremely low-event game in which visiting Atletico registered ZERO total shots.

However, the reigning Spanish champions simultaneously held English champions and 2021 UCL finalists Manchester City to only 0.8 expected goals and 22 penalty-area touches, both of which qualify as its lowest output of the entire Champions League campaign to date.

That alone should be cause for a higher-priced total in Madrid, but there are further reasons to support a low-scoring contest Wednesday. The Atletico defense has conceded under one expected goal in three straight UCL fixtures and is only allowing 0.87 expected goals per 90 minutes in its last 11 La Liga and Champions League matches.

Plus, three consecutive Manchester City UCL fixtures have stayed under 2.5 combined expected goals, while four straight Atletico UCL fixtures have failed to clear the same benchmark. Further, three of Atletico’s four UCL contests played at the Wanda Metropolitano have stayed under 2.5 combined expected goals.

All that said, don’t expect Atletico’s attack to generate much against Manchester City’s defense. In Champions League matches played at full strength this campaign, Atletico is creating less than one expected goal per 90 minutes.

Based on the showing in the first leg, I would have this market-priced closer to -150, so I’m showing some value on the under in the Spanish capital.

Bet this line at BetMGM who has it at -140 for Wednesday’s game.

Hold your nose and say a prayer this Benfica defense shows up at Anfield because this has the potential to get ugly.

That said, I believe the under is showing good value here. As previously mentioned, Liverpool basically has this tie wrapped up – Benfica enters as 50/1 underdogs to advance – and really only needs one goal to guarantee a spot in the semis.

Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side is also coming off an emotional weekend fixture against Manchester City and face the same opposition this upcoming weekend in a FA Cup semifinal match, a fixture that is of far greater importance than Wednesday’s.

Furthermore, Liverpool gave us a hint of what it looks like with a safe lead in the opening leg. In the second half at the Estadio Da Luz, Liverpool created only 1.2 expected goals with a 2-0 advantage. On the flip-side, a desperate Benfica side created only 0.87 expected goals, per fotmob.com.

Given Benfica has created only 0.95 xG/90 minutes in four road Champions League matches, I don’t rate them particularly highly to get on the board. Plus, Liverpool’s defense has held four straight UCL opponents under one expected goal.

If Liverpool is able to get on the board first – it has done so in three of four home Champions League fixtures and three straight Premier League fixtures – expect Benfica to lose its motivation and aim to not get embarrassed.

Under 3.5 goals is currently -128 on FanDuel.