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Not even the brightest college football pundits had Saturday’s contest between No. 22 Auburn (3-0) and No. 11 Oklahoma (3-0) circled as a pivotal moment in the SEC before the season started.
There was some optimism around both campuses that their team could be dark horses in the conference, but you’d be hard-pressed to find anybody who predicted that they’d both be in as plum a position as they are before their Week 4 encounter.
Of the two, Oklahoma has earned more plaudits thanks to a win over Michigan and the emergence of quarterback John Mateer, but don’t forget that Auburn went on the road to defeat a hyped-up Baylor squad in Week 1.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma odds, prediction
The oddsmakers have tagged Oklahoma as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday, but keep an eye on this number, as most reports from the bookies suggest that the Sooners will be a very trendy favorite against the Tigers.
It’s hard to blame the betting masses for lumping on the Oklahoma bandwagon when the Sooners have done nothing wrong through three games, but these are the times when you need to ask yourself if you should pump the brakes. It’s easy to get carried away, especially early in the college football season.
And it’s not like Oklahoma is taking on an also-ran on Saturday.
Auburn’s best performance of the season came all the way back in Week 1, so it’s not on anybody’s mind anymore, but it was an impressive outing against a Baylor team that was — and still is — expected to be a player in the Big 12.
The Tigers followed that victory up with ho-hum wins against Ball State and South Alabama, but they really haven’t put a foot wrong, either.
Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold in action. APThe elephant in the room here is the presence of Jackson Arnold, the dual-threat quarterback for Auburn. Arnold was at Oklahoma last season, but things sputtered out, causing him to move 800 miles to the east.
The move has worked out splendidly for all parties involved, as Arnold has fit in well on the Plains, and his departure allowed Oklahoma to bring in Mateer, who is the biggest thing in Norman since Kyler Murray.
Arnold’s dual-threat ability keeps defenses honest, and he should be a motivated cat on Saturday.
And while Mateer has been receiving all the love in Norman, it’s actually Oklahoma’s defense that has been the most impressive part of their hot start. According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, the Sooners are the fifth-best defense in the country through three games.
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That said, I do wonder if we are getting a little ahead of ourselves when it comes to Oklahoma. Yes, they’ve been terrific, but there’s a chance we change how we look back on their win over Michigan.
Don’t forget — the Wolverines had a freshman quarterback in his second-career start under center.
Oklahoma is the deserving favorite at home, but Auburn holds value on the spread and is worth a sprinkle on the moneyline.
The Play: Auburn +6.5 | Auburn moneyline +190 (FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.



