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At this point, it feels like an inevitability that Novak Djokovic will win his record 10th Australian Open. The 21-time Grand Slam champion has been answering questions about his hamstring all tournament long, but it hasn’t seemed to be a problem through the first five matches in Melbourne.

Djokovic has won in straight sets in four of his five victories, and the only set he lost came in a tie-breaker in Round 2. The 35-year-old Serb has only had his serve broken by one opponent, Grigor Dimitrov, throughout the entire tournament.

Djokovic is a massive -2500 favorite over American Tommy Paul in the semifinals on Thursday night.

As the odds suggest, it’s pretty hard to see a path to victory for Paul over Djokovic in a best-of-5 set match. The American is a solid defender, he’s quick and doesn’t give an inch, but everything he does well, Djokovic does better. 

Paul’s path to the semifinals wasn’t particularly tough, the highest seed he faced was No. 24 Roberto Bautista-Agut, but he also faced formidable opponents at every stop. Even his Round 1 opponent Jan-Lennard Struff can prove to be a tricky out on his day. 

And even if he didn’t face any true elite players in the buildup, you have to be impressed with where Paul’s game is at right now. The 25-year-old played a spiffy, mistake-free quarterfinal against Ben Shelton, only making 26 unforced errors in a four-set victory over Ben Shelton.

Shelton is the type of player who will go after his shots early in rallies and try to keep points short, but that plan can come unglued quickly against a steady player like Paul, who is happy to drag his opponent into the deep end and wait for them to beat themselves.

That strategy will be a lot tougher to pull off against Djokovic, who is happy to defend and keep rallies going himself. Over the course of five sets, Djokovic should give himself plenty of opportunities to put Paul away, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the American hang with Djokovic as the Serb tries to settle in and feel out his opponent.

If Paul is able to play his clean, consistent game, the first set should be tight enough that taking a shot on the American to take a 1-0 lead is worth a sprinkle.

Paul to win the first set (+400, BetMGM)