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The Avalanche were terrific in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
It ended 4-3 Colorado, but anybody who was watching the game would admit that scoreline flatters Tampa Bay. The underlying metrics bear it out, too.
Colorado finished the game with a 16-9 edge in high-danger scoring chances, a 37-22 advantage in scoring chances created and won the expected goals battle, 3.6 to 1.7.
Despite all of that, you could still make the argument it was an impressive display from the Lightning. Even though they weren’t at their best, they clawed their way back into the contest and were able to turn it into a coin flip.
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Tampa’s ability to hang around in games and series is hard to quantify, but these past three years have taught us that this team’s ability to bounce back means it cannot be counted out, no matter the score nor the opponent.
The Lightning still have a significant goaltending edge and should make the necessary defensive adjustments.
Expect the Bolts and Andrei Vasilevskiy to be much better in Game 2 and beyond. Instead of backing Tampa Bay +135 in Game 2, grab the better value and take the Lightning to win the series.
The play: Lightning to win the Stanley Cup, +230.
