The total is going down, but the spread is going up for “Monday Night Football” between the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers to cap off Week 9. The Steelers have been the subject of playoff talk now after winning three games in a row to move to 4-3. The Bears have not been, as they’ve dropped three straight to fall to 3-5. 

Any time you get a low total like 39.5, the points look attractive on the underdog. Winning by margin becomes tougher in a low-scoring affair, simply based on the expectation of limited possessions and below average offense. These two offenses rank 24th and 28th in percentage of possessions ending in points, with Pittsburgh at 33.3 percent and Chicago at 29.5 percent. 

Recency bias does seem to be filtering into this spread. The Bears are on a losing streak, but the Packers and Buccaneers are clear playoff teams and division winners, while the 49ers just might be hitting their stride. The Steelers beat the Broncos, Seahawks (with Geno Smith) and Browns, who have been one of the most injured teams in the league of late. 

With points at a premium, and Justin Fields mobile enough to evade the rush, the Bears should hang within this number at Heinz Field, though you might be able to wait and get a +7 for an even better position. 

The play: Bears, +6.5.