The 2022 Triple Crown will come to a close on Saturday with the 154th running of the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park in Elmont. The race features a field of eight horses, headlined by Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike.

And although Rich Strike will be the headliner in this field, he is not the favorite. The long-shot champion was the third choice on the morning line with 7-2 odds.

In a small, relatively weak field, there’s certainly a chance that Rich Strike — who will run out of the No. 4 position — can win his second race in a row, but at the same time, we’re talking about a ridiculous drop in price for a horse that was 80-1 a month ago. Granted, that was in a wide-open, deep field featuring 20 horses, but it’s still quite a premium to pay on a horse that nobody had heard of before the first Saturday in May.

Usually, the first question handicappers ask themselves before a horse race is what they want to do with the favorite. Will they use the chalk or try to beat it? But this is a unique situation where the question becomes, what should punters do with the third favorite?

That’s because Rich Strike will likely garner significant betting attention after his performance at Churchill Downs five weeks ago. And there are a couple of schools of thought when it comes to what we saw with Rich Strike at the Kentucky Derby.

The first school of thought is that it was just a ridiculous outlier in a sport that throws one up every now and then — just usually not in front of the worldwide audience the Derby attracts. Those who are bullish on Rich Strike would argue that the horse has continued to improve throughout his career and we shouldn’t assume that the stars just aligned for his stunner in Louisville.

It should also be pointed out that Rich Strike held off two strong contenders, Epicenter and Zandon, to win the Derby. There is no question that on that day, Rich Strike was the best racehorse in a field full of great racehorses.

In all likelihood, the answer is that Rich Strike’s performance at Churchill Downs was an outlier. It was awesome and served as a good reminder why horse racing is a captivating sport to watch and bet on, but it makes no sense to bet on Rich Strike just because you missed out.

Instead, you can find value on a couple of decent prices like the 6-1 on Creative Minister or the 8-1 on Nest to pull the upset in a field that looks ripe for one. Creative Minister ran a game third in the Preakness and Nest has a realistic chance to become the fourth filly to win the Belmont.

The old adage suggests that lightning doesn’t strike twice. And even if it did, wouldn’t you want better odds than 7-2? If you want to strike it rich in the Belmont Stakes, look elsewhere than the Kentucky Derby winner.