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There are typically quite a few upsets in the NFL playoffs, but the Chiefs and Eagles advanced out of their respective conferences as the top overall seeds. The Chiefs punched their ticket to the dance by beating the Jaguars and Bengals, while the Eagles blazed their path to the promised land by beating the Giants and Niners. We should have a great game on our hands, as it features a 1.5-point spread and a 50.5-point total. 

We have no shortage of props to choose from in the big game, but I’ve managed to narrow down the list to my favorite four on PrizePicks. 

The best way to move the ball on the Eagles is on the ground, but this is Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid in the Super Bowl. It’s hard to envision them abandoning what they’ve done so well over the last five years. Mahomes has been taken off the injury report, but is still nursing a high-ankle sprain. When you combine that with the fact that the Eagles have the highest adjusted sack rate in the league, we can expect a lot of quick passes from Mahomes. If you take out the game against the Jaguars (where he missed time) and the Raiders (Week 18 somewhat meaningless game), Mahomes has had 29, 29, 16, 36, and 28 completions in his last five games.  

Before the playoffs started, I was expecting Jerick McKinnon to be the primary back for the Chiefs. However, Pacheco ran well against the Jaguars and then saw a major uptick in usage against the Bengals. He played on 59% of the snaps, he saw 10 carries, and he set career-highs in receptions (5) and targets (6). The Eagles don’t have the best run defense and Mahomes should have more confidence in Pacheco in the passing game. I prefer the fantasy score over yards because he can hit the over on this one in a variety of ways. 

I wanted to make sure to include a rushing prop for Hurts in the picks because the matchup sets up exceptionally well for him. The Chiefs have the second-highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL, which forces a lot of scrambles from opposing quarterbacks. During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the third most rushing attempts and the fifth most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Hurts is going to have a number of designed runs and he’s going to make plays with his legs when the designed play breaks down. The over on his rushing yards is enticing, but the over on his rushing attempts is what I have my eye on. 

The Eagles haven’t had to air the ball out much in the playoffs. They were able to build big leads against the Giants and Niners and were able to take their foot off the gas in the second halves of those games. The Chiefs should be able to push back in this one, which should lead to the Eagles staying aggressive throughout. Even with limited pass attempts for Hurts in those games, Goedert was able to catch 10 passes on 11 targets. The Chiefs aren’t particularly tough on tight ends and Goedert is a big weapon in this offense. 

Enjoy the last football game of the season! 

You can follow Derek Farnsworth on Twitter @RG_Notorious