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For the first time in seven years, both the Yankees and Mets will be in the postseason. And for the first time since 2006, both local teams can claim that they are legitimate World Series contenders.

And it isn’t just fan sentiment or the New York media that believes both clubs are legitimate contenders. The betting market is also on board with that idea, as the Yankees and Mets entered Thursday tied for third-favorite to win the World Series at +475 at BetMGM.

FanDuel has also posted a market on whether there will be a Subway Series, with “Yes” sitting at +850. Those odds imply there is a 10.5 percent chance we’ll see the first All New York World Series since 2000.

Finding positive expected value (+EV) on the Mets and Yankees right now is a tricky endeavor since their odds have been appropriately shortened thanks to great regular seasons, but that doesn’t mean that savvy punters can’t find a way to back their favorite team in October. It just will likely require some patience and planning.

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First of all, it’s really hard to imagine that either the price on the Mets or Yankees will shorten between now and the beginning of the playoffs. The Los Angeles Dodgers are clearly the best team in the MLB and their presence in the National League means that the Mets will almost certainly enter the postseason as the second choice, unless they get caught by the Braves and lose out on the bye into the National League Division Series (the top two division winners don’t have to play a best-of-3 wild-card series).

Should the Mets stumble and get nipped by Atlanta, it would present a decent buying opportunity on the Mets. It’s the same situation for the Yankees, though the gap between them and the Houston Astros is tighter than the one between the Mets and Dodgers.


  Brett Baty is tagged out at the plate by Jose Trevino after trying to score on Starling Marte’s single during the fifth inning of the Mets’ 4-2 loss to the Yankees. Robert Sabo Brett Baty is tagged out at the plate by Jose Trevino after trying to score on Starling Marte’s single during the fifth inning of the Mets’ 4-2 loss to the Yankees. Robert Sabo

Another option, and probably the one that would provide you with the best odds on the Yankees and/or Mets to win the World Series, would be to play a rolling parlay of either (or both) team’s series moneylines come playoff time.

Here’s how it would work. Let’s say the Yankees are -225 favorites over their ALDS opponent. You’d place your stake (let’s say $100 for a round number) on the Bombers to win the series. If the Yanks win, that would net you $44.44 to add to your original $100 bankroll.

You’d then place that $144.44 (original stake plus winnings) on the Yankees to win the ALCS, where the likeliest scenario is that they’re a slight underdog to the Astros (let’s say +115 for this exercise). If the Yankees beat Houston, you’d net $166.11 and would now sit with a bankroll of $310.55 for the World Series.

The adage says you can’t script October, but should the Yankees meet the Dodgers in the Fall Classic, they’d be a decent underdog. And if it’s the Mets, those odds would likely be close to a pick ’em. Anybody else, the Yankees would be a favorite to varying degrees.

For the purposes of this educational exercise, let’s say the Yankees are +150 underdogs against the Dodgers. To complete the rolling parlay, you’d put the $310.55 you now have in your pocket on the Yanks to beat Los Angeles in the World Series.

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Should they win, you’d return a profit of $465.98, which when added to your stake would total $776.63. That means you returned $676.63 off your original $100 and got the Yankees to win the World Series at +677 odds.

A lot would have to break right for that rolling parlay to come through perfectly (and the odds are just best-guess projections), but it’s part of a bigger point.

For the first time in a long while, it’s going to be an exciting fall in New York and having a little action on the Mets and/or Yankees will only add to the excitement. But right now, potential bettors can afford to be patient and let the dust settle before finding the best strategy to get down on one of the local teams in October.

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