It’s easy for bettors to get buried in stats when trying to predict what’s going to happen in the 2018 MLB playoffs. And, there’s a good chance many of those stats are polluted by ballpark influences or significant differences in schedule strength.
One quick and easy measure baseball investors can use to evaluate a team’s “playoff readiness” is to look at its performances versus other playoff teams. To give you a sense of what’s happened when the elite have played each other this past season, VSiN compiled won-lost records for a theoretical 10-team “Super League” involving only playoff teams.
That effort revealed what could be some good news for Yankees fans!
We start with a look at how American League playoff teams performed head-to-head … and against NL postseason entries in interleague play:
Team W-L Pct.
Dodgers 28-20 .583
Yankees 24-18 .571
Astros 26-21 .553
Cubs 22-21 .512
Red Sox 23-22 .511
Brewers 22-23 .489
Indians 17-18 .486
Rockies 22-25 .468
A’s 20-24 .455
Braves 12-24 .333
The Bronx Bombers were the best of the AL bunch. Only the Yankees and Astros cleared the .500 mark in a meaningful way. The Red Sox needed a 5-1 record against likely NL pretender Atlanta just to sneak over break even. Hard to believe … but the Red Sox went 108-54 this season despite having losing records versus the Indians (3-4), Astros (3-4) and A’s (2-4), while going 10-9 versus the Yankees.
Still, that’s a tight cluster. A few breaks here and there in close games and the standings might have been different. Any of the five AL contenders are capable of stringing together victories this month. There’s more separation over in the Senior Circuit.
Note how the Dodgers have established distance from the pack up top, while the Braves look as if they do not even belong in the postseason.
Still, there’s a lot of relative parity if you look at the full field. Best advice for bettors in the playoffs is to assume parity for everyone but Atlanta (make the Braves prove they belong before taking any shots). That means looking for value underdogs. Be careful laying chalk with favorites who may be overrated in the general marketplace because of illusions created versus weaklings.
Given the competitive nature of regular-season meetings of playoff-bound teams, the coming playoffs could be something special. Within the “Super League,” nobody’s an obvious champion yet. Bet smart!
