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Two division leaders and a pair of MVP contenders square off Sunday in Tampa, where the Buccaneers come off a bye as 2.5-point favorites over the Patriots.
New England rides a six-game winning streak into Raymond James Stadium, powered by Drake Maye’s rapid rise under Mike Vrabel.
The Buccaneers, healthier after their week off, are banking on Baker Mayfield’s efficiency and a rested defense to slow down one of the league’s most surprising contenders.
Oddsmakers are already leaning toward Tampa Bay with some key playmakers possibly returning, and this being the Pats’ toughest test in several weeks.
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What our Post expert thinks about Patriots vs. Buccaneers
The Patriots’ defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL against the run but sits just 28th in pressure rate and 23rd in pass-rush win rate — a critical gap against Mayfield, who completes 69% of passes from a clean pocket.
New England’s offense has quietly climbed to seventh in both EPA per play and points per game (26.3), while Maye’s 17 touchdowns against only four interceptions show how efficiently Vrabel’s system is clicking.
Tampa’s pass rush, ranked seventh in sacks, faces a Patriots offensive line that’s already allowed 34 sacks — most among winning teams.
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
