With the NFL season roughly six weeks away, there are a variety of season-long wagers bettors can take advantage of to keep things entertaining.

FanDuel does a great job of getting these futures up early, and one that caught my eye involves selecting which team will finish with the best regular season record. What’s interesting about this prop is the odds aren’t identical to Super Bowl futures.

For example, the Green Bay Packers are +700 to finish with the best record and +1200 to win the Super Bowl.

I looked back at all the NFL seasons dating back to 1978 that included at least a 16-game schedule and found 16 instances where the team with the best record won the Super Bowl.

That essentially is a 37.2 percent hit ratio. Since that span, there have also been 10 instances where multiple teams finished with the best record.

One thing about the regular season record prop is you can start by eliminating the lesser teams immediately. While it’s certainly possible for some of those teams to overachieve and perhaps reach the playoffs, they’ll likely lack the consistency to win week in and week out at a high rate.

However, some examples exist of teams coming out of nowhere to finish with the best record. Who can forget in 2019 when the Ravens went 14-2 with Lamar Jackson in just his second professional season.

Or in 2017, when a career backup in Case Keenum led the Vikings (13-3) to a tie for the best record following Sam Bradford’s season-ending knee injury.

One of the teams tied with the Vikings for the best form was the Philadelphia Eagles, and they did so with a second-year quarterback in Carson Wentz, who went 11-2 as a starter before tearing his ACL.

If possible, I think it makes sense to target teams with a good nucleus on both sides of the ball instead of focusing too much on the quarterback position.

I’d also want to avoid certain divisions that figure to be highly competitive, such as the AFC West and NFC West.

In my opinion, the Buffalo Bills were the best team in the NFL last year. Had they forced the Chiefs to return the ball late in the fourth quarter of the divisional round playoffs, it would’ve been the Bills and not the Bengals in the Super Bowl.

Buffalo has unfinished business, and I love their balance on both sides of the ball. Von Miller should be a tremendous addition to a defense that still finished first in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

And given the year-over-year improvement we’ve seen in Josh Allen’s game, it wouldn’t surprise me if he finds another gear this season.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is going about his business as he awaits a new contract from the Baltimore front office.

Jackson has many doubters he’d like to prove wrong, as there’s even an anonymous defensive coordinator who is making headlines following his criticism of the former MVP winner.

“If he has to pass to win the game, they ain’t winning the game…I don’t (care) if he wins the league MVP 12 times. I don’t think he’ll ever be a (QB)1 as a quarterback,” the coach told The Athletic.

That coordinator might want to recall that the Ravens were 8-3 at one point last season before losing their final six games following an injury to their star quarterback.

Losing Jackson was the equivalent of pouring salt in a wound as the Ravens were decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball. Even before the start of the regular season, the Ravens lost cornerback Marcus Peters and running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.

In Week 1, they lost left tackle Ronnie Stanley. In Week 13, they lost their second starting cornerback in Marlon Humphrey.

I’m willing to wager that the Ravens won’t have another rash injury in back-to-back years. When you combine their motivation for this season with a possible weaker division given the Browns and Steelers quarterback concerns, I think Baltimore is worth a shot at +1400.

My longshot to finish with the best record is the Miami Dolphins. Given their improvements in the offseason, I was surprised to see their win total was only 8.5 games.

Miami has a ton of upside as they’re a team with a decent chance to be overachievers this season. My thought process here is the Dolphins are undervalued at the current price.

Although they’re in the same division as the Bills, Buffalo has a more challenging strength of schedule given the success it had last season.

Tyreek Hill can be a transformational player for Tua Tagovailoa—similar to what we saw when the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs.

In the AFC East, the Jets are still Jets, and the Patriots don’t have the same cloak of invisibility they had when Tom Brady was at the helm.

The Dolphins may be a bit of a long shot, but I think they’re very live at +5000.