One of the most dangerous traps that can snare casual gamblers is falling for the “Coach as Savior” fallacy. Two examples of that square off Saturday at noon on FS1 when Nebraska visits Michigan in Big Ten play.
Jim Harbaugh arrived in Michigan in 2015, hyped as a virtual sure thing to return the Wolverines to greatness. He had success at the college level at Stanford despite strict academic requirements. He was a playoff regular in the NFL with the 49ers. Surely his intensity and Xs and Os would lead Michigan back to the top of the Big Ten.
Las Vegas oddsmakers anticipated extreme public interest in betting Michigan under Harbaugh. Lines were stacked against the Wolverines, making profitable betting difficult. Against the spread, Michigan was 7-6 in 2015, 6-7 in 2016, 5-7-1 in 2017 and is 1-2 this season (19-22-1 overall).
Michigan has yet to finish higher than third in the Big Ten East under Harbaugh. Last season’s “something should be happening by now” campaign started with a nice win versus Florida. It turned out the Gators weren’t very good.
This season, Michigan couldn’t move the ball until very late in a 24-17 non-cover loss at Notre Dame in its season opener. The victorious Irish would subsequently look mediocre (at best) with similar home-victory margins over Ball State and Vanderbilt.
Nebraska just began the Scott Frost era. He was the hottest thing in coaching last season, leading Central Florida to an undefeated record and a self-proclaimed “national championship.” (Note that Vegas oddsmakers would have had UCF as neutral-field underdogs of at least 8-10 points versus all Final Four teams). Many programs wanted to give the up-and-comer a well-paid shot. His heart was in Nebraska, where he played quarterback.
Early chill for Frost
- Lost QB Tristan Gebbia to Oregon St.
- Nebraska (-3) lost to Colorado 33-28
- Lost QB Adrian Martinez to injury
- Nebraska (-13) lost to Troy 24-19
That’s about as rough a start as you can have! Tristan Gebbia, a hyped redshirt freshman, announced he was transferring after not winning the starting job in summer practice. That left only one scholarship QB … one who was prone to scampering into injuries. Not surprisingly, that happened before the end of the delayed season opener versus Colorado (after the Akron cancellation to weather). Two games. Market misses of eight and 18 points. (Martinez is currently “questionable” for Saturday’s game in Ann Arbor.)
How long will these programs be overrated under Harbaugh and Frost? It’s something to consider as you watch Saturday’s contest. Avoiding the “savior” trap will help you cash tickets throughout the season.
