Will the NFL draft be the next big annual attraction in the world of sports betting?
Despite intense interest in the draft from football fans across the country, and the fact that “NFL is king” in sports betting, the early returns suggest “probably not.” But why?
— Sports books could take a bath. This isn’t like betting a game, where a point spread can split the money before the random nature of high-level competition influences results. Nobody can be “certain” before a game starts which team will cover a spread. In the draft, somebody knows who’s about to get picked. Occasionally, a lot of somebodies. Sports books don’t want that kind of exposure. They’re in business to make money, not hand it away to people with inside knowledge.
— There aren’t currently any propositions that are attractive to fans. To date, props are only bringing sharps out of the woodwork. Tuesday morning, Jeff Sherman of the Westgate in Las Vegas said on VSiN’s “Follow the Money” that about 95 percent of bets are coming from sharps, 5 percent from recreational bettors. Squares just aren’t that interested.
— It’s difficult to create props that will be attractive to fans. Maybe there will be a year when the identity of the No. 1 pick is a true toss-up. Half the country thinks it will be one guy, half thinks a different guy, and sports books are there to collect the vigorish at bet levels that limit exposure. That is not going to happen often, if ever.
— It won’t be uncommon for prop results to be determined by whims of poorly run franchises. Who wants to risk money predicting management mistakes? How do you handicap surprise “reaches?”
— Sports books already have great options available to NFL bettors that benefit from draft publicity. Though it’s only April, you can bet regular-season win totals. Futures prices are available to win divisions, conferences, or the Super Bowl. A sports book’s edge on futures is huge, and the vigorish on win totals gives them a fighting chance.
If you love your favorite team’s draft, bet it to go Over its projected win total, or take a flyer at the futures board. If you think a team made blunder after blunder, bet it Under its win total.
The NFL draft is definitely a big deal. Sports media this week have been flooded with mock drafts, trade talk and general hype. And, what happens during the draft will obviously impact sports betting choices in the future (sometimes for years!). There’s just little to drive enthusiastic betting on the draft itself.
Note that VSiN will televise a live “Betcast” for subscribers who are avid fans Thursday night at VSiN.com, featuring informed commentary about props, win totals and futures prices from our hosts and special guest analyst, former NFL executive Michael Lombardi. Bet smart before the lines adjust!
