One of the advantages of being an NHL bettor is that the markets can be slow to adjust to team tendencies. The New York Rangers have been playing high-scoring games for weeks. Against relatively frozen totals, they’re 13-1-1 to the Over their last 15 games.
That’s just one Under in a month of hockey!
The Rangers will be back in action Thursday night on the road against the New York Islanders. There’s no guarantee this recent trend will continue (especially against the recently Under-heavy Isles). And, it certainly won’t continue at such an extreme pace. Markets adjust eventually. But, it is important to remember:
- Hockey markets are less liquid than in other sports, which means they get less attention from oddsmakers.
- Hockey gets much less media attention than other sports, which means important team characteristics can stay off the betting radar longer. Even in big cities.
- Hockey game flow has some “insurance” for Over bettors because of overtime and shootouts. Games can’t end in ties like in the old days. A game tied 3-3 at the end of regulation will go over a posted Over/Under of six. Plus, more teams are pulling their goalies earlier when behind in the third period. This often leads to scoring for offenses with the extra attacker, or empty-netters the other way. Markets have tried to adjust for these realities. They may not have adjusted enough for teams prone to play high-scoring games anyway.
Bettors should monitor Rangers games in the immediate future and after the All-Star break to see if “explosive offense/soft defense” dynamics continue. For other area NHL teams:
- Devils: A change in management could trigger improved results. New Jersey beat the recently red-hot Tampa Bay Lightning 3-1 Sunday night after firing general manager Ray Shero. The Devils had been much more competitive since Christmas anyway after an abysmal start. Good litmus tests are on tap Thursday at Washington and Saturday at Columbus before the break.
For those of you who like betting side and total “tandems” in the same game (not parlays that have to sweep, but safer individual bets that just juice out with a split), the Devils have shown a very strong Win/Under or Loss/Over tendency since Christmas. Consider adding a complementary total bet if you have a confident read on a Devils’ game.
- Islanders: The team has been Under fodder for weeks due to a top-five defense but a disappointing offense (ranking outside the top 20 in goals scored per game). They are about 70 percent to the Under if you throw out pushes dating back to Thanksgiving. That includes an Over vs. the Rangers, whom the Isles play Thursday and again next Tuesday before the break. Let’s see what happens Saturday vs. Washington and Sunday at Carolina.
Consistent with today’s theme, we’re talking about hockey team tendencies dating back to Christmas and Thanksgiving. If markets are going to react this slowly, lace up your skates and bet smart!
