Penn State knew it would have some problems on defense this season. It didn’t expect to allow well over 400 yards to Appalachian State in a season-opening thriller!
Clearly the Nittany Lions will have to perform better than that to cover as 9-point favorites Saturday night at Pittsburgh in a rivalry battle that will be nationally televised by ABC.
Last week, Penn State (-24) ended regulation tied at 38 with Appalachian State. The Mountaineers missed a long field-goal try in the final seconds. PSU ultimately won 45-38 in OT.
Only two defensive starters returned from 2017 for the Nittany Lions. At many power programs, that’s a minor issue because they just “reload” rather than rebuild. Penn State might need to rebuild quickly if it hopes to contend for the Big 10 championship or national honors.
Here’s the market perspective on PSU’s Week 1 underachievement:
- Point spread: Penn State by 24
- Over/Under: 54
- Market-projected score: Penn State, 39-15
- Regulation score: 38-38
The offense did what it was supposed to do on the scoreboard.
Check out these game stats from last week, keeping in mind Penn State was led by Heisman candidate Trace McSorley at quarterback, while Appalachian State was starting inexperienced Zac Thomas:
Almost Deleted by App’
- Regulation yards: ASU 441, PSU 409
- Passing yards: ASU 292, PSU 230
- Third-down conversions: ASU 6, PSU 6
- Regulation turnovers: ASU 0, PSU 0
The only giveaway of the game was an interception thrown by Appalachian State to end overtime. Neither offense completed a pass or converted a third-down try in the extra period.
Penn State’s defense struggled to disrupt, particularly as the Mountaineers were scoring 28 points in the fourth quarter. In Happy Valley!
Hey, Appalachian State has a nice Sun Belt team. But numbers like that suggest future Big Ten opponents like Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and possibly even Michigan will move the ball even more easily if PSU doesn’t improve.
What about Saturday night’s opponent, Pittsburgh? Tough call. The Panthers struggled on offense last season, ranking No. 97 nationally. Only four starters are back. Last week’s 33-7 win over the Albany Great Danes saw all scoring come in the first half. Did Pitt call off its dogs and start looking ahead?
Handicapping Penn State games this season will involve evaluating how well the opponent can exploit an inexperienced (and possibly mediocre) defense. And recognizing how quickly the market adjusts on sides and totals to what might be a new reality.
