You’ve probably heard that handicapping tournament basketball usually comes down to the matchups. Team A might match up great against Team B, but runs into Kryptonite against Team C. Upstart programs that run a lethal full-court press can spring upsets against sloppy guards, but will allow layup after layup to smart opponents. An inside attack works great against a soft underbelly, but not against a tight zone.
With major basketball powers soon embarking on their postseason journeys, Saturday provides a great opportunity to study the strengths and weaknesses of top contenders.
Specifically, VSiN wants you to focus on these two games involving likely Elite Eight seeds: No. 4 Duke at No. 3 North Carolina (ESPN, 6 p.m.), and No. 7 Michigan at No. 9 Michigan State (ESPN, 8 p.m.).
Casual bettors often fall into the following traps when betting marquee matchups:
- Remembering a great outing from the team they want to bet on, and the worst recent outing of a team they want to bet against. (Losing by selective memory.)
- Trying to figure out who’s “hot” or who’s “cold” based on recent straight-up or point-spread results. (Losing by turning sports betting into roulette.)
- Holding a grudge against a head coach who didn’t win for them earlier this season or in past seasons. (Losing by thinking “that coach is a moron.”)
A “hot” team that runs a full-court press for a “brilliant” coach is still going to get waxed by a good ballhandling team that may not have covered its past few games. A “cold” team with a stingy zone defense can still knock off opponents who can’t make treys.
If you force yourself to focus on skill sets instead of recent scores, you develop a deeper sense of what really determines which teams win and cover. And, you realize how many mistakes you had been making with knee-jerk reactions.
Because the media already have done such a great job of hyping TV powers, let’s quickly discuss potential weaknesses that could derail Duke, North Carolina, Michigan State or Michigan the rest of the way.
- Duke has ranked worse than 300th all season nationally in 3-point shooting percentage. The Blue Devils also are in the lower half of national rankings in defensive rebounding rate. Hustling foes can earn second-chance points.
- North Carolina is soft on inside defense by tournament standards. The Tar Heels have allowed 47 percent shooting on 2-point shots, which will really hurt them in games where referees have a quick whistle.
- Michigan State is well below tournament standards at ball protection, suffering more turnovers per offensive play than is acceptable.
- Michigan’s overall offensive efficiency doesn’t measure up to other superpowers because of average 3-point shooting and free throw inconsistency.
Start watching with a keener eye, and use resources like kenpom.com and teamrankings.com to learn more about the teams you’ll be handicapping throughout March Madness. Give yourself a matchup advantage against the betting markets.
