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Following a critical three-game sweep of the Red Sox, the Toronto Blue Jays found themselves in second place in the AL East and atop the wild-card standings by a half-game heading into Monday. Toronto is also on a six-game winning streak, and perhaps the only thing that can slow the team down is a scheduled day off.
Righty Jose Berríos is in line to start Tuesday’s series opener against the Cardinals. For much of the season, he’s struggled to keep the ball inside the park, as his 1.77 HR/9 ratio is chiefly responsible for his 5.22 ERA. Yet, he hasn’t allowed more than one home run in either of his past four starts.
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Blue Jays vs. Cardinals prediction
One stat I like to use to gauge a pitcher’s improvement is their hard-hit rate. In Berríos’ first 15 starts, his hard-hit rate was 35% or higher. Moreover, his hard-hit rate in 12 of those 15 games was 40 percent or higher.
Jose Berrios Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesBut in two of his past four starts, Berríos’ hard-hit rate was below 30 percent.
Rookie Andre Pallante starts for the Cardinals. Although he is 3-4 with a 3.34 ERA, his 1.46 WHIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate and could be a candidate for regression. I recommend isolating Pallante by backing the Blue Jays on the first-five run line.
The pick: Blue Jays First 5 Innings -200 (BetMGM)
