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Sometimes targeting an edge on player props doesn’t need to be too cute or inconspicuous. 

In Sunday’s do-or-die Game 6 of the ALCS for the Blue Jays, we can attack the market by following the headlines: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been willing the Blue Jays’ way to a World Series appearance.

The slugger has a chance to keep that pursuit alive back home down 3-2 in the series.

Since the Jays dropped the first two games of the series and were outscored 13-4, Guerrero Jr. has mounted a three-game hit streak. In the series overall, the two-time Silver Slugger winner is batting .389 with two home runs and a pair of RBIs. 

On Sunday, Guerrero Jr. will face Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert, a man against whom he has compiled a career .400/.471/.933. This isn’t just anecdotal either. His underlying metrics confirm the 17 plate appearances he’s faced Gilbert aren’t fluky. 

Gilbert offers a fastball-heavy approach, Guerrero Jr.’s bread and butter, having hit them for .323 batting average this season. He also has a reliance on the zone; Guerrero Jr. excels against righties who challenge him there. 

The Mariners burned through four pitchers in five innings of relief following Bryce Miller’s exit in Game 5, which offers Guerrero Jr. to attack their middle-relief guys, who he has had his way with. 

My confidence is invested in his discipline above all else. Guerrero Jr. has walked four times in these five games. He’s seeing the ball well and not chasing, so pitchers have been forced to challenge him, giving him high-leverage opportunities. 

The price on Guerrero Jr. to reach at least two bases isn’t long enough considering he has five extra-base hits through this series. 

What’s more eye-popping, however, is his power right now — Guerrero Jr. leads all postseason hitters in xwOBA, an estimate of a player’s on-base average based on their quality of contact, and wRC+, a measure of a player’s overall offensive production.

This is an undervalued price for a game-changing player with the narrative on his side. 

THE PLAY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115, FanDuel)

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.