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Boise State’s season has been a roller coaster.

The Broncos came into the campaign as the favorite to represent the Group of 5 in the College Football Playoff, but those expectations were quickly tempered by an ugly loss to South Florida in Week 1.

Boise State rebounded by rhyming off three wins in a row, but the Broncos were stomped by Notre Dame, 28-7, on Oct. 4, all but ending all hope that they had of returning to the big dance.

The Broncos can still technically get into the tournament if they win the Mountain West and the other Group of 5 champions leave something wanting, but it’s a long shot.

To keep that flame lit, Boise State will need to leave no doubt against Nevada on Friday night.

One of the worst teams in FBS, Nevada could be in for a long night against Boise State.

If you put aside the USF and Notre Dame games, Boise State has been a flat-track bully, scoring an average of 48.8 points.

You may argue that they’ve done it against poor teams (Eastern Washington, Air Force, Appalachian State, New Mexico, and UNLV), but guess what? Nevada is worse than just about any of them.

Boise State should be able to name its score Friday.

The problem is that Nevada should also have some success with the ball.

The Wolf Pack are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, 130th according to SP+, but they are getting a Boise State defense that has had issues getting stops.

The Broncos’ defense grades out as the 71st-best in FBS this season, and they’ve surrendered 25 or more points against Air Force, USF, New Mexico, UNLV and Notre Dame.

Boise’s porous defense isn’t the only thing keeping me off the 21.5-point spread. It’s also a tricky schedule spot, with this game sandwiched between UNLV and Fresno State.

The Broncos will have one eye on that showdown with the Bulldogs, as it could determine whether or not they get into the Mountain West Championship in December.

Instead, we’ll focus on the total and look at a play on Over 51.5 points, which is a number I think Boise State can get to by itself.

The Play: Over 51.5 (-105, FanDuel)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.