Have we reached that point where a team is so discounted that it suddenly begins to offer point-spread value? That’s the question to ask regarding Bowling Green, which continues to plumb such depths of ineptitude that the oddsmakers have no choice but to almost beg wagerers to “buy” on the Falcons.
The point-spread specifics for Tuesday night’s MACtion at Doyt Perry Stadium suggest as much; visiting Buffalo rated a 31.5-point choice at BetMGM as of Monday afternoon, with slightly higher prices available at other sportsbooks.
With the oddsmakers dangling this carrot, should investors take a bite with BGSU? Paratroopers, oil-rig firefighters, and various daredevils might be tempted, but with a pair of losses already by 35 and 38 points, respectively, the Falcons might not be worth the risk.
The fact is that BGSU fits the MAC stereotype, wherein a quality coach can get results. Urban Meyer, Dave Clawson, and Dino Babers all have won at Doyt Perry in recent memory. But since Babers left for Syracuse before the 2015 GoDaddy Bowl vs. Georgia Southern, the Falcs have dropped 37 of their 51 spread decisions.
Babers’ successor Paul Haynes made no headway in three-plus seasons; neither could interim Carl Pelini. The hire of Scot Loeffler, not the most distinguished of college offensive coordinators, a year ago caused many MAC onlookers to raise an eyebrow. For good reason; Loeffler is now 3-11 straight up and against the spread at BGSU. The Falcons, just 2-10 their last 12 as a home underdog, also rank 123rd (dead last) nationally in six different defensive categories in 2020. Not good.
Evidence suggests a Buffalo offense scoring almost 46 points per game can handle this impost, especially with QB Kyle Vantrease off of a four touchdown-pass effort in the romp past competent Miami-Ohio. Moreover, Bulls coach Lance Leipold is now 28-12-3 vs. the line the past three-plus seasons, and this matchup last year was a UB romp, 49-7.
Unless the weather forecast is worse than the projected 25 degrees on Tuesday night, we’re not sure the oddsmakers have adjusted enough to get us interested in BGSU.
The Play: Buffalo, -31.5.
