Despite losing their last match of the group stage to Cameroon, the Brazilian National Team is still the betting favorite to win the 2022 World Cup. Brazil is +250 to lift the trophy, just ahead of Argentina (+470), who has already booked its spot in the quarterfinals.

Even with the blemish on their record, Brazil were superb in group play, finishing with a +2 goal differential (3 GF, 1 GA) and a +4.9 expected goal difference. The Selecao only allowed 0.9 expected goals across their three matches with Switzerland, Serbia and Cameroon.

That kind of defensive performance should bode well against a South Korean side that has made a habit of hanging around in matches long enough for them to pull off something special. Here’s our pick for the Round of 16 World Cup matchup, with kickoff scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET on Fox.

What the Taeguk Warriors pulled off against a Portuguese side that had very little to play for is not going to happen against Brazil. South Korea has been a high-event team through the group stage with eight total goals (4 GF, 4GA) and 7.8 expected goals (4.1 xGF, 3.5 xGA) in three matches — one of which was a 0-0 draw.

That kind of back-and-forth style should play right into Brazil’s hands and allow the Selecao to run up the score if they’ve got their finishing boots on.

A look on the Brazil team total over 2.5 at plus money seems a wise play against a South Korea side that can be picked apart.

Brazil Over 2.5 Goals (+146, FanDuel)