There are two games Sunday to close out the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Let’s study key stats and betting patterns in both.
Kansas City (-9¹/₂) vs. Houston, 3:05 p.m., CBS
Texans: 13th offense, 28th defense, seventh schedule, even turnover margin
Chiefs: sixth offense, 17th defense, 15th schedule, plus-eight turnover margin
(Stat rankings from the regular season … strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin’s market-respected data at USA Today). Clear edges to K.C. in all facets of play, even after you make a slight mental adjustment for Houston’s tougher schedule.
It’s worth noting that Kansas City’s defense improved down the stretch, and likely will perform better than what “17th” would suggest. You probably watched the Chiefs win at New England, 23-16. They allowed just three points apiece to Denver and Chicago the next two weeks. That defensive improvement caught betting markets napping. Kansas City is 5-0-1 against the spread in its past six games.
Similar to Tennessee-Baltimore on Saturday, the public likely will bet the favorite at 9¹/₂ or less, with sharps stepping in for underdog value at the key number of +10.
- The case for Kansas City: Houston had to rally to survive less dynamic Buffalo last week. The Texans’ 41-7 loss at Baltimore in mid-November may suggest Houston isn’t ready to compete with the league’s elite. The Chiefs are among the elite, and their improved defense makes them better than they were in a Week 6 loss to Houston.
- The case for Houston: Quarterback Deshaun Watson isn’t going to go down without a fight. The Texans are capable of scoring late to sneak through the backdoor even if they fall behind by 11-16 points. Plus, Kansas City head coach Andy Reid’s playoff history isn’t exactly stellar.
Green Bay (-4) vs. Seattle, 6:40 p.m., Fox
Seahawks: eighth offense, 26th defense, first schedule, plus-12 turnover margin
Packers: 18th offense, 18th defense, 26th schedule, plus-12 turnover margin
If Seattle were fully healthy, and both teams had equal rest, this line definitely would sit below a field goal. Green Bay consistently failed to impress through the regular season despite facing a soft schedule. And, the positive turnover advantage keyed by the experience of quarterback Aaron Rodgers is canceled out here by similar strengths for Seattle and Russell Wilson.
Sharps are biding their time. That allows more complete information regarding Seattle’s health and the weather at kickoff. Public bettors prone to backing all the fresh home favorites have hit the Packers at -3 ¹/₂ and -4. We may see very strong sharp interest on the underdog before kickoff at +4 or more if game-day indicators are positive for the Seahawks.
- The case for Green Bay: Seattle faded down the stretch. It closed the regular season 0-3-1 ATS, then could only turn a statistical rout into a 17-9 nail biter at injury-riddled Philadelphia.
- The case for Seattle: Our stat profile shows that the Packers may be a playoff pretender. They might not have ranked in the top 20 on either side of the ball vs. a league average schedule. Bettors should take more than a field goal vs. likely pretenders.
