In what’s shaping up as a dream finale for the July Fourth weekend, the Stars and Stripes will try will try to win the 2019 Women’s World Cup on Sunday morning against the Netherlands (Fox, 11 a.m., don’t forget the early kickoff).
The United States women’s national team likely will close near a 1-goal favorite over the Dutch. That’s a larger goal spread than in the previous two rounds versus France and England, just a shade below market expectations in prior games against Spain and Sweden.
Though the talented and technically sound Orange Lionesses aren’t power-rated as highly as France or England, they’re definitely capable of taking this game to the wire.
Anticipate weekend market activity will be tricky. Sportsbooks in the U.S. will be flooded with patriotic bets. How big of an adjustment will they make to global lines to limit exposure?
It’s expected global “three-way” lines will close in the vicinity of USA -240 (risk $240 to win $100 that the U.S. will win the game in regulation), a draw +320 (risk $100 to win $320 that regulation ends in a tie, forcing extra time) and the Netherlands +600 (risk $100 to win $600 that the Dutch win in regulation).
Equivalent win percentages in regulation at those prices are the U.S. 71 percent, a draw 24 percent, and the Netherlands 9 percent. Sportsbooks build universes larger than 100 percent to create a house edge.
For totals bettors, the Over/Under in regulation will likely settle at 2 ¹/₂ goals. The Under would be a slight favorite at that price. Sportsbooks offering a solid 2 would make the Over a steep favorite.
The U.S. is a prohibitive favorite to ultimately lift the cup (either in regulation or in extra time/penalty kicks if needed). Odds immediately after the matchup locked in showed the U.S. at -500 (83 percent to claim the championship), the Netherlands +350 (22 percent). Will casual bettors be willing to risk $50 (or possibly more) to win $10?
More patriotic palpitations on the pitch: The U.S. men’s team will battle Mexico in the championship match of the Gold Cup on Sunday (FS1, 9 p.m.).
Global markets show Mexico about 0.3 goals better on a goal-supremacy scale. El Tri are laying slight juice at -0.25 goals on the Asian Handicap (half your bet goes in at pick’em, the other half at minus half a goal). But, the U.S. lays slight juice at stores offering the dog at +0.5 goals.
Global “three-way” lines for the result at the end of regulation should close in the vicinity of USA +240 (29 percent), a draw +210 (32 percent), and Mexico +110 (48 percent). Some U.S. shops may offer a lower return on the hosts if betting is overly one-sided. Available Over/Unders should match the women’s game, with higher money lines on Over 2 than Under 2 ¹/₂.
On the money line to claim the Gold Cup, Mexico is expected to close around -170 to -180, with the U.S. likely to close around +140 to +160. Money has all day Sunday to move the market.
