Three weeks ago, second-ranked Duke beat third-ranked Virginia, 72-70, at Cameron Indoor laying 3¹/₂ points. Virginia hit a jumper at the buzzer to turn what would have been a four-point loss into a two-point loss, causing millions of dollars to change hands in worldwide betting markets.
A key category to monitor in Saturday’s rematch (ESPN, 6 p.m. ET) will be free-throw attempts as Duke was outscored from the field back in Round 1:
- Free throws: Virginia 11 of 17, Duke 18 of 31
- Scoring on field goals and 3-pointers: Virginia 59, Duke 54
Duke haters long have argued the Blue Devils receive unfair favoritism from officials, particularly on their home floor. If attempts are closer to even this time around, or if Duke continues to clank a slight edge in attempts, we’re going to have a ballgame.
Though sports bettors love conspiracies (and the increase in legal betting has led to an increase in conspiracy chatter), it’s important for handicappers and bettors to realize large free-throw differentials are typically caused by offensive aggression. Offenses that attack the rim will draw more fouls. Offenses that toss the ball around the arc hoping to get an open look on a 3-pointer won’t.
Zion Williamson of Duke is a force of nature. He has attempted 238 2-point shots this season and just 42 3-pointers. He’s going to keep drawing fouls. Duke is going to win the free-throw category in most games. Opponents who can get stops without fouling will have a shot to cover versus the Blue Devils, or to beat them outright.
As you approach the postseason betting extravaganza, it’s important to develop a sense of how contenders try to score. Too many “public” bettors watch a game to root for their bets, to root for a star player, or to yell at a coach. You need to be focusing on team skill-sets, and how they influence big-game results.
- Teams that attack the basket can score by getting to the rim for easy buckets, by drawing fouls that earn free throws (while also getting opponents into foul trouble) and by kicking it out of traffic for open 3-point shooters. This helps iron out the randomness of long-range shooting and creates blowout opportunities in front of refs who have quick whistles.
- Teams that emphasize the 3-pointer tend to have feast-or-famine results keyed to whether or not the bombs are falling. This can allow underdogs to score big upsets when they get hot. But it’s difficult for any team to stay hot from long range through three or four wins in a conference tournament, or for six wins in the NCAAs.
If you’re a sports fan, you’re already watching a lot of games, and hopefully reading a lot of boxscores. Try to pay closer attention to what’s happening “inside the arc.” It will inform your betting strategy. It’s something to think about as you watch Duke-Virginia, Wisconsin-Michigan, Kentucky-Mississippi State, Villanova-Marquette and other marquee showdowns this Saturday.
