“Betting the obvious” isn’t supposed to work this well. The dominant Saints have covered nine straight games coming into Thursday’s meeting with the Cowboys (Fox, 8:20 p.m.).
Oddsmakers can’t make the lines high enough — though the market finally got close Thanksgiving night when New Orleans (-13) beat Atlanta, 31-17. It took the Saints going at about three-quarter speed to make backers sweat. New Orleans was outgained, 366-312. Drew Brees had a very quiet passing line (by his standards) of 15-22-1-171. The Saints cashed anyway.
Overlooked in all of this season’s highlight-reel performances are important things the Saints aren’t doing offensively. It’s easy to see they are doing. While gaining yards and scoring touchdowns, the Saints aren’t turning the ball over, aren’t committing penalties, aren’t taking sacks, and aren’t being forced to punt as often as other elite offenses.
Check out these NFL category rankings entering Week 13. Notice how New Orleans ranks better in the “aren’ts” than in gaining yards:
- No. 1 in fewest giveaways, fewest offensive penalties, sack avoidance, fourth-down conversion rate
- No. 2 in drive points
- No. 3 in red-zone TD percentage
- No. 5 in total yards gained
- No. 6 in passing yards, rushing yards, third-down conversion rate
Drive points are those scored (or allowed) on drives of 60 yards or more. VSiN keeps those by hand from box scores that itemize scoring drives. We’ll be sending out updated offensive and defensive per-game averages every Wednesday the rest of the season in our free daily emails (register at VSiN.com). The Saints have scored 276 drive points through 11 games, only one behind the 277 posted by the Chiefs.
Those composite rankings are an important reminder that efficient execution is critical when it comes to beating market expectations. High yardage teams can burn money if they turn the ball over too often, commit too many holding penalties, or create false hope with occasional big plays amidst blind-alley series that result in punts.
Efficient teams also benefit from the implosions of opponents who must play from behind. The Saints can get scoreboard distance quickly if the other team stumbles. That was a key element in consecutive double-digit wins over the Vikings, Rams, Bengals, Eagles and Falcons.
Can Dallas hang within the number Thursday night? It will take clean execution from a Cowboys offense that currently ranks third in fewest offensive penalties and fourth in fewest giveaways … but a more disappointing 23rd in drive points and 30th in sack avoidance.
It’s worth noting that New Orleans is overdue for a complacent effort given the dearth of recent tests. Is this the week the Saints march finally stumbles?
