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The Cubs eked out a 4-3 win over the Brewers in Game 3 of the NLDS to keep their season alive.
Chicago plated four runs in the first inning and was able to make ’em stick, fending off a bases-loaded, two-out jam in the eighth inning.
The job is far from done for the Cubs, as they host Game 4 on Thursday night.
Brewers vs. Cubs Game 4 odds, prediction
The Cubs will turn back to Matthew Boyd for the beginning of Game 4, hoping that the veteran can bounce back after a disastrous showing in Game 1.
Pitching on short rest, Boyd allowed six runs — only two of which were earned — and didn’t get out of the first inning.
Boyd’s tumble set the tone for the first two games in Milwaukee, as the Brewers had similar success against Shota Imanaga in Game 2.
Freddy Peralta of the Brewers. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectIt would be shocking if Boyd isn’t able to improve his effort in Game 4, but the problem is that he’ll likely have very little margin for error given his counterpart.
Freddy Peralta posted a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 176 2/3 innings in the regular season, and his underlying metrics support those sparkling numbers.
Among qualified pitchers, Peralta graded out in the 73rd percentile in expected batting average, 85th percentile in xERA and 80th percentile in hard hit percentage.
Boyd’s numbers in the regular season were solid, but his underlying metrics suggest that he caught the benefit of the doubt.
He’ll also be taking on an offense that had plenty of success against southpaws during the regular season, and one that has proven to be relentless in this series.
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Boyd and the Cubs’ bullpen, which has had to log a ton of innings in this series, will have their work cut out for them Thursday night.
Milwaukee looks like a savvy bet at anything better than -130 odds.
The Play: Brewers (-120, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
