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Though the match has little meaning on the final table, my best bet for the Premier League’s last matchday comes in Brighton versus West Ham United.
West Ham could still move into the Europa League places with a win and Manchester United loss, but Brighton has been a juggernaut at home. The Seagulls have a plus-3.1 expected goal differential at the Amex, the 10th-best mark in the league. Brighton is also a positive regression candidate as its realistic home goal differential is minus-6.
West Ham has come up extremely lucky away from home. The Hammers have a plus-4 road goal differential on a minus-6 expected goal differential.
In eight road fixtures vs. top-half opposition, West Ham is 0-7-1 (W-L-D) with a minus-12.4 expected goal differential. Even if you remove matches against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea from the equation, West Ham is still 0-4-1 (W-L-D) with a -7.1 expected goal differential.
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For the reverse fixture at the London Stadium — West Ham’s preferred venue — these sides were basically level. With the Seagulls on friendly turf, I’ll back Brighton.
The play: Brighton Draw, No Bet (-135).
