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Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Browns vs. Dolphins predictions and picks for their NFL week 10 showdown, which is live Sunday on CBS at 1 p.m. ET.

After winning three in a row following a three-game losing streak, the Miami Dolphins will look to stay perfect when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game when they host the Cleveland Browns in Miami Gardens, Florida.

The streaky Dolphins are 6-0 when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game at quarterback, and are hoping that trend continues. The duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are on pace to smash franchise and perhaps league marks for receiving catches and yards, and Miami added help on both sides with the trade deadline pickups of linebacker Bradley Chubb and running back Jeff Wilson Jr.

The Browns won’t be an easy obstacle to overcome as they snapped a four-game skid on Oct. 31 with a dominant performance against reigning AFC champion Cincinnati. Nick Chubb leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 10 and ranks second in yards (841). The play of quarterback Jacoby Brissett against a depleted Miami secondary could play a role in the outcome of this one.

Miami has been involved in games where the combined score has been 58 or more in three of those six games that Tagovailoa has started and finished. But two of those came in the past two weeks in shootout wins on the road against the Lions and Bears.

The Browns are averaging 25 points per game and are coming off one of their best offensive performances of the season during a 32-13 win over the Bengals. Brissett accounted for two touchdowns in that game and Chubb ran for 101 yards and two scores. The Dolphins have given up the sixth-most points in the NFL this season, but have been stingy at home, allowing 20 or more points only once in four games. 

Pick: Under 48.5 total points

After a sluggish first start back against the Steelers after suffering a concussion, Tagovailoa has thrown three touchdown passes each of the past two weeks to ignite the Dolphins’ offense.

Tagovailoa has had his best statistical performances on the road so far this season in games at Baltimore, Detroit and Chicago. 

The Browns’ defense has been solid against opposing quarterbacks, allowing only 10 touchdown passes this season. But this may be his first in front of the home crowd since this is as in rhythm as he’s looked running Miami’s offense all season, especially with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both putting together dominant performances simultaneously.

It isn’t unreasonable to think Tagovailoa can connect with either or other offensive weapons in Miami’s offense at least twice for scores in this one.

Pick: Tagovailoa total passing touchdowns Over 1.5

The Dolphins have not allowed an opposing running back to rush for 100 or more yards in a game this season. Only quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and, last week Justin Fields have done that. The Jets’ Breece Hall got close with 97 yards in week 5, but most of that came on a 79-yard run. The Vikings’ Dalvin Cook had the next-highest total in that category with 77 yards, which also included an explosive 53-yard run to seal a 24-16 Minnesota win.

But Chubb is an elite talent who is having arguably the best season of any NFL running back. Chubb has surpassed the 100-yard mark in five games this season and has rushed for at least 87 yards in seven of Cleveland’s eight games. The exception was his 56-yard output in a 38-15 blowout loss to New England on Oct. 16 when the Browns virtually abandoned the running game in the fourth quarter after falling behind 24-9.

Pick: Chubb over 84.5 rushing yards

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.