Will the Zamboni zig-zag through the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals?
Old-school sharps wouldn’t be shocked. A dramatic Game 2 bounce-back from the Blues showed why so many bettors consider using the “zig-zag” theory in playoff betting. The pre-series underdog had been badly outclassed by the Bruins during Monday’s series opener. St. Louis was outshot 38-20, and lost the analytic stat “expected goals” by a wide 3.83 to 1.24 margin, according to hockey website Natural Stat Trick.
Then, in Wednesday’s rematch:
- St. Louis virtually reversed shot count, winning the stat 37-23. Now, through two games, the Bruins hold just a slim 61-57 edge in shots despite being a medium favorite on home ice.
- St. Louis won “high-danger scoring chances” 15-10, after dropping that important indicator stat 10-3 in the opener. The Blues were getting the best of “flow of play” all evening, not getting discouraged when they could forge only a tie through three periods.
- St. Louis won “expected goals” 2.88 to 1.86. They were more than a full goal better than Boston despite having to play on the road — and despite the Bruins enjoying five power-play opportunities (compared to just three for the Blues). That’s the power of the zig-zag. The Game 1 loser usually brings more intensity just as the winner takes its foot off the gas.
Before the series began, Boston was in the neighborhood of -150 to -160 to win the series (risk $160 to win $100 on the Bruins to hoist the Cup, or anything in that ratio). That money line is down to -130 after the service break.
Zig-zag bettors definitely will be looking for the Bruins to bounce back Saturday in St. Louis, with the intangibles in their favor after watching an eight-game winning streak come to an end. Oddsmakers will try to reduce their exposure by shading prices against the preferred strategy. The late-week line settled at St. Louis -120/Boston even money (risk $100 to win $100, or anything in that ratio). It’s possible that game-day action will drop the price to pick ’em.
Are the Bruins a smart bet at pick ’em or better?
Many sharps believe Boston still has a higher performance ceiling given recent playoff form and what appears to be an ability to create more power-play opportunities in this matchup with aggression (10 such opportunities for the Bruins so far, compared to five for the Blues). That angle could be the ultimate tie-breaker Saturday, and throughout what’s shaping up as a hard-fought series.
Though the Bruins’ sense of urgency may not be as intense, the Blues knew Wednesday that a second-straight loss in Boston would create a bleak scenario in which St. Louis would have to win four games in five to celebrate. Boston just needs a road split to regain home-ice advantage.
And, we’re also talking about what might be a very cheap price for a host that closed the regular season on a 24-6-4 tear. Maybe it’s zig-zag bettors who will end up feeling the Blues.
