Have you ever looked at a matchup and thought to yourself “man, this looks fun”? Welcome to Friday night’s matchup between the Bucks and the Bulls in Chicago – a day before mobile sportsbook registration returns to Illinois – featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo and DeMar DeRozan. 

Looking at the prop side of things, I’m staying away from the big names. Antetokounmpo has a scoring prop line set at 30.5 points, with DeRozan’s at 28.5. I know these guys can fill up the stat sheet, but those are some high numbers. Instead, I’ll be looking at the Bucks’ Khris Middleton, with a scoring prop of 20.5 points.

Middleton is a strong shooter who puts up plenty of shots. He averages 19.6 points per game, which lines up with the 20.5 prop that the oddsmakers have set for him. Middleton takes 15.1 field goal attempts per game, which is second on the team behind Antetokounmpo. Middleton can also pour it in from deep – he leads the Bucks with 6.5 three-point attempts per game, and converts at a healthy 36.5% clip.

Chicago has a hard time defending the three, allowing a 36.4% three-point percentage to opposing shooters. That mark sits at 27th across the NBA, which is the opposite of “good.” I like Middleton to find plenty of success from beyond the arc, leading to a play on the over for his 20.5 points prop.

This game has a high point total, with the over/under currently sitting at 240.5. The number makes plenty of sense. Over the same 10-game stretch that we’ve been referencing so far, neither defense has been particularly strong. The Bulls and the Bucks sit at 22nd and 23rd, respectively, in defensive rating over that span. 

These two teams have starkly different betting trends against the point total recently. The total has gone over in 11 of the Bucks last 13 games, with the total going under in five of the last seven games for the Bulls. With a point total as high as it is, I like the under.