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The Chicago Bulls will travel to South Beach to face the Miami Heat tonight in a battle of the top two teams in the Eastern Conference. Chief among the interesting storylines in this game is DeMar DeRozan, who has been on an absolute heater for over a month now. 

DeRozan scored 30 points on January 19, and hasn’t scored less than 23 points in a game since. He topped 35 points in eight straight matchups, and scored less than 30 in only four of his last 17 outings. DeRozan has led the Bulls to six wins in their last seven games, and has them currently sitting in second place in the East.

Looking at the player props for tonight’s game, DeRozan’s scoring line is at 30.5 points on MGM, but has been a point lower on other betting sites throughout the day.

He has topped that number in 10 straight games. Home or away, it hasn’t mattered. DeRozan plays almost the entire game and attempts a ton of shots (24.9 attempts per game over his last 10).

Miami is a tough opponent, making life difficult on the defensive end of the floor. The Heat hold opponents to the fifth-fewest points per game, largely by closing down the interior. Bam Adebayo and company allow the fewest points in the paint of any team in the league.

The Heat also don’t allow many opportunities. No team holds opponents to fewer field goal attempts per game than Miami at only 83.7. Opponents typically settle for exterior shots, attempting the third-most points from 3. 

DeRozan feasts with his midrange shot. 90.9 of his attempts are two-pointers, which is a dramatic difference from other top scorers in the NBA. Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Paul George, Donovan Mitchell — none of them are above 65.9%. DeRozan is on pace to make the most midrange shots in a single season since Kobe Bryant in 2005-06. 

With the volume of shots that DeRozan takes, he should once again be in line for another high point total, even against the Miami defense. Trust him to hit the over on his scoring line.